000 AGXX40 KNHC 031639 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1139 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A cold front extending from the far western Fl Panhandle to extreme ne Mexico will continue se reaching from Tampa Bay to new to se Tx on Sat, with moderate to a locally fresh n to ne breeze behind the front, and moderate ne flow s of the front increasing to a fresh breeze tonight, except becoming a strong ne breeze along the western Yucatan Peninsula this evening. The e portion of the front will drift a little further s and gradually dissipate through Sat as the western segment begins to move slowly n as a weak warm front, with a fresh e to se flow across the western gulf waters to the s of the front. This broad warm frontal boundary will extend e to w across the northern gulf coastal plains till the next cold front moves into the northern waters along position from the Fl Panhandle to the Tx coastal bend late Tue night, and reaches from Tampa Bay to Veracruz Mexico on Wed night. Otherwise, an inverted trough will develop during the late afternoons over the Yucatan Peninsula, then move wnw offshore during the evenings and continue nw during the overnight hours eventually dissipating over the sw gulf waters during the late mornings. Expect a fresh ne-e-se wind shift along this trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. Strong to near gale force ne flow expected within about 90 nm of the nw coast of Colombia tonight with strong ne to e winds elsewhere across the Caribbean from about 10N to 16N between 65W and 81W, to include the Gulf of Venezuela. The gradient will further tighten on Sat, Sun and Mon evenings with minimal gale condtions forecast along the nw coast of Colombia. Locally strong e winds forecast across the Caribbean from 10.5N to 13N between 64W and 76W on Thu. Moderate to locally fresh ne to e winds expected elsewhere through Wed, with 6 to 8 ft seas across the tropical waters primarily in mixing n and ene swell. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A decaying frontal boundary extends from 31N54W to across the central Bahamas to n-central Cuba and is accompanied by locally overcast low and mid level clouds and a few showers. A surface high is centered near 29N75W with a ridge extending ne across Bermuda. This ridge will shift s and extend from w to e along 28N tonight as a cold front moves into the nw waters. The cold front will reach from 31N70W to Port Canaveral Fl late tonight, then stall from 27N60W to the nw Bahamas late Sat with the western segment of the front then beginning to move back n as a warm front stalling along the ne Fl coast late Sat night. Expect fresh to locally strong northerly winds, and 7 to 9 ft seas, behind the cold front late tonight through Sat evening. Another cold front will move off the ne Fl coast on Sun merging with the remnants of the first front. This second cold front be accompanied by a s-sw-nw 15 to 20 kt wind shift, and reach from Bermuda to the nw Bahamas late Mon, then stall on Mon evening. The w portion of this second front will move n as a warm front on Tue ahead of another cold front moving off the ne Fl coast late Wed and preceded by strong sw flow to the n of 30N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.