000 AGXX40 KNHC 030848 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 348 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Middle to upper level TUTT-like troffing seen in WV imagery extending ENE across the basin and into W Atlc and supporting old llvl frontal boundary. Only modest moisture currently in GOM over SW portion. Weak surface pres across NE GOM attm producing generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across most of basin. New weak cold front has shifted slowly into NW waters past 6-12 hrs and will continue to move across N portions next 48 hrs or so...stalling from S TX ewd along about 27N by Sat morning before front begins to drift Nwd as warm front across W sections Sat and Sun in advance of next frontal system moving into Central Plains. Sfc high pres will open up as this occurs with moderate return flow W portions and fresh ely flow across remainder of S portions due S of sfc high invof 85W. Seas to build 4-6 ft S central zones and 3-5 ft zones during this time. Models suggest best llvl moisture for low cloud cigs and fog on Sat with moisture diminishing somewhat all but S TX by Sun. Models in good agreement through early next week. Next front doesn't reach Gulf waters until Wed-Thu and expected to lay down E-W across Nrn waters. Prefer the EC trend by Day 6. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Broad flat upper ridging prevails S of 14N across the basin yielding mostly dry sinking air aloft. Strong sfc ridge anchored across Ern Atlc extends W to about 60W with a pair of weak highs either side of FL peninsula. This yielding a modest pres gradient across the basin and a generally Ely trade wind regime across the basin, more NE across W portions. Recent scat passes show typical strong E to NE trades across S central portions-Colombia Basin and fresh Ely trades elsewhere E of 75W. A weak Ely perturbation is along about 71W attm and is producing locally gusty winds in sct squalls per recent ship obs. Seas across Colombian basin likely 8-10 ft attm and 5-7 ft elsewhere E of 80W. E of the Windwards, strong E Atlc sfc ridge producing long fetch of ENE trades across most of tropical Atlc and yielding significant Ely trade wind swell event dominating the trade wind belt. Models and evening altimeter passes indicate seas 8-10 ft from 50-60W and S of 21N. Not much change in these conditions expected through Sat before ridge is nudged Ewd and winds and seas diminish modestly there through late Sun before W Atlc high reinforces pres gradient across entire region for freshening winds and seas into early next week. Nocturnal winds to pulse to around 30 kt early this morning and again tonight before post frontal high moves into W Atlc late Sat and induces sufficient pres gradient across Carib to yield overnight minimal gales off Colombia Sat and Sun nights with peak seas to 12 ft each early morning. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Remnants of old frontal boundary can be seen in PW products and model diagnostics from central Bahamas NE to about 30N62W with sfc ridging to either side. Very zonal and progressive upper pattern prevails across mid latitudes from Ern U.S. across much of Atlc. Next frontal boundary currently shifting off Outer Banks region to move quickly ESE across NW Atlc and into central Atlc next 72 hrs and drag Ewd across NW then N waters today and Sat and leaving a dying front or shear line E to W along about 26-26.5N and into far NW Bahamas. Modest seas currently 3-5 ft within ridge and 6-8 ft SE waters in Ely trade wind swell will subside slightly as front sinks E-SE across nrn waters through Sat. Moderate cyclogenisis associated with parent frontal low tonight through Sun will produce Nly swell behind front and invade Nrn waters with and behind front through the weekend to increase seas to 8-10 ft E of Bahamas and N of front. Next front will form over NW waters Sun night-Mon from thermal trough over Gulfstream and shift quickly ESE Mon-Tue. Parent low to deepen more significantly than weekend low but will be too far N for significant swell development for local waters. High behind front to build across waters Mon then shift E through Wed ahead of approaching next frontal system. Mainly moderate to fresh SE winds and associated wind swell to yield seas 4-6 ft Mon-Tue except for 6-8 ft SE waters with Nly swell. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.