000 AGXX40 KNHC 020557 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Weak high pressure centered over the northeastern Gulf will persist through Friday supporting light winds over the northeast Gulf and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas will range from 1 to 3 ft over the northeastern Gulf and 3 to 4 ft over the remainder of the Gulf. The high pressure will weaken later on Friday as a cold front approaches the northern Gulf coast. This front will cross the northern half of the Gulf Friday evening, and then continue to move southeastward over the remainder of the eastern Gulf Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure well inland over the eastern United States behind this front will support mainly moderate northeast to east winds over the gulf basin Friday night through Saturday. The main high center will shift offshore the eastern Unites States coast Saturday night, while another weaker ridge becomes setup across the northern Gulf. This weak ridge will remain in place Saturday night through Monday before the ridge slides eastward to the western Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday. The weak ridging pattern Sunday into Monday will result in mainly gentle winds over the northern Gulf and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the southern Gulf with seas of 3 to 4 ft over the majority of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The pressure gradient between ridging north of the Caribbean and lower pressures over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south central Caribbean through Monday night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night during this time frame. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will be generated south of 15N between about 70W and 80W by the persistent stronger winds over this portion of the Caribbean. Seas will peak between 11 to 12 ft about 90 nm north of the coast of Colombia each night where winds are strongest. Large trade-wind swell will maintain seas of 9 to 11 ft in the tropical Atlantic zones through Friday. Northeast to east winds will remain fresh to strong over these zones through Friday as well. Winds and seas will briefly diminish Saturday and Sunday as a passing cold front weakens the ridge north of the area. Trade winds and associated seas will once again increase Monday into Tuesday as the ridge to the north rebuilds. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weakening stationary front from 27N65W to near the central Bahamas will weaken to a trough later this morning. This trough will serve as the focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms the next couple of days as it meanders across the northeastern forecast zones. Otherwise, a weak ridge axis extends across the northern waters supporting gentle winds north of 27N and moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 27N. Seas range from 3 to 7 ft over the open Atlc waters. This pattern will persist through Friday. Late Friday a cold front will cross the northwestern waters and then quickly sweep across the Atlc waters mainly north of 24N through Saturday. The front will exit the zones to the east by Saturday night. Fresh northerly winds will occur behind this front as far south as 28N with seas building to 8 to 9 ft n of 28N and mainly east of 75W Saturday through Sunday night. Another cold front will cross the northern waters from west to east late Saturday through Monday. Current model runs indicate this front will not be accompanied by significant winds or seas over our area. The southern zones will generally be unaffected by these frontal passages through the forecast period and will likely see moderate to fresh easterlies prevail. Over the far southeastern zone AMZ127 expect trade wind induced swell of 8 to 10 ft to persist through Friday, then return again Monday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.