000 AGXX40 KNHC 011845 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weak high pressure ridge will linger over the northeastern Gulf the next several days as a frontal boundary stalls along the northern Gulf coast. This pattern will support moderate to fresh southeast to south winds over the western Gulf and moderate to fresh east winds over the eastern Gulf through Friday with seas of 1 to 3 ft over the northern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the southern Gulf. Winds will be light to moderate over the northern Gulf in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. The front will dissipate near the northern Gulf coast by Saturday night. Weak high pressure will rebuild over the northern Gulf on Sunday. The high will then shift east of the Gulf by Monday with return flow developing across the basin on Tuesday and Wednesday. A thermal trough will develop off the west coast of the Yucatan each night through early next week. The trough will cause winds to briefly increase to fresh and possibly to strong speeds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The pressure gradient between ridging north of the Caribbean and lower pressures over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south central Caribbean through Sunday night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night during this time frame. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will be generated south of 15N between 70W and 80W by persistent strong to near gale winds over this portion of the Caribbean. Seas will peak between 11 and 13 ft about 90 nm north of the coast of Colombia each night where winds are strongest. Large trade-wind swell will maintain seas of 9 to 13 ft in the tropical Atlantic zones through Friday. Northeast to east winds will remain fresh to strong over these zones through Friday as well. Winds and seas will briefly diminish Saturday and Sunday as a passing cold front weakens the ridge north of the area. Trade winds and associated seas will once again increase as the ridge to the north rebuilds. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weakening stationary front from 24N68W to near the Caicos Islands at 22N72W will serve as the focus for showers today. Long period NW swell over the northeastern zones continue to subside. This has allowed seas in this area to diminish below 8 ft. A high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters and will continue to do so through Thursday night. This will support gentle to moderate winds north of 26N and moderate to fresh winds south of 26N with seas ranging from 3 to 6 ft. A cold front will move across the northern waters and weaken the ridge on Friday, stall Friday night, and weaken. A second stronger cold front will enter the northern waters Saturday night, then stall near 25N by Monday. The southern waters will remain under moderate to fresh easterly trades throughout this time period. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.