000 AGXX40 KNHC 010653 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure will meander over the northeastern Gulf the next several days. This pattern will support moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf and moderate to fresh easterly winds over the southern Gulf through Friday with seas of 1 to 3 ft over the northern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the southern Gulf. A thermal trough will develop off the west coast of the Yucatan each night supporting brief fresh to possibly strong winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A cold front will sag southward toward the northern Gulf coast late Friday, weakening the ridge over the northern Gulf. This front will dissipate over the northern Gulf through Saturday night with weak high pressure building over the northern Gulf for Sunday. The high will then shift east of the Gulf by Monday with return flow developing across the basin early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The pressure gradient between ridging north of the Caribbean and lower pressures over Colombia will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south central Caribbean through Sunday night. Winds near the coast of Colombia are pulsing to Gale force early this morning as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the ridge strengthening to the north and seasonal low pressure temporarily deepening over Colombia. After today, model guidance indicates that the low will not be as deep subsequent nights which will allow the nocturnal increase of winds to remain just below gale force the remaining nights of this week. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will be generated south of 15N between 70W and 80W by persistent strong to near gale winds over this portion of the Caribbean. Seas will peak between 11 and 13 ft about 90 nm north of the coast of Colombia each night under the strongest winds. Large trade-wind swell will maintain seas of 9 to 11 ft in the tropical Atlantic zones through Friday. East winds will remain fresh to strong over these zones through Friday as well. A brief diminishing of winds and seas will occur Saturday and Sunday as high pressure passes north of the area. Then early next week the trade- winds and seas will once again increase to current levels. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A dissipating stationary front from 23N65W to Haiti will support showers through today. Lingering swell over the northeastern zones from earlier strong winds over the region will diminish below 8 ft later this morning. A high pressure ridge axis currently extends across the northern waters and will continue to do so through Thursday night. This will support gentle to moderate winds north of 26N and moderate to fresh winds south of 26N with seas ranging from 3 to 6 ft. A cold front will move across the northern waters Friday, stall Friday night, and weaken. A second cold front will sweep across the northern waters Sunday night. The southern waters will remain under moderate to fresh easterly trades throughout this time period. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.