000 AGXX40 KNHC 311848 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure will linger in the vicinity of the northeastern Gulf during the next several days. This will generally support moderate east to southeast winds and seas ranging between 3 and 5 ft over the Gulf through Friday. This pattern will finally begin to break down on Saturday as a cold front approaches the northern Gulf coast. This front will be weak and will likely dissipate over the Gulf Saturday night with weak high pressure building over the northern Gulf for Sunday. A thermal trough moving over the Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula will cause winds and seas over the southwestern Gulf to become fresh during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The pressure gradient between ridging north of the Caribbean and lower pressures over Colombia will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south central Caribbean through Saturday night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to Gale force tonight as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the ridge strengthening to the north and seasonal low pressure temporarily deepening over Colombia. Model guidance indicates that the low will not be as deep subsequent nights which will allow the nocturnal increase of winds to remain just below gale force the remaining nights of this week. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will be generated south of 15N between 70W and 80W by persistent strong to near gale winds over this portion of the Caribbean. Seas will peak between 11 and 13 ft about 90 nm north of the coast of Colombia each night under the strongest winds. Fresh to locally strong winds near a stationary front from the Windward Passage to the eastern coast of Honduras will continue through tonight. The front will weaken slowly, which will allow winds to gradually decrease over the area. The remainder of the Caribbean can expect mainly fresh trades through this weekend. Large trade-wind swell will maintain seas of 9 to 13 ft in the tropical Atlantic zones through the end of the week. East winds will remain fresh to strong over these zones through Saturday night as well. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front reaches from 31N57W to 24N65W, where it continues as a stationary front to the Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a second cold front extends from 31N61W to 27N69W to near the central Bahamas at 25N75W. A weak surface trough curves northeastward from the Mona Passage to 21N65W. The second cold front will merge with the easternmost frontal boundary, which will become stationary tonight. The resulting stationary boundary will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. Strong winds confined to north of 30N near these fronts have already shifted east of the forecast zones as high pressure builds eastward over the western Atlantic. NW swell are maintaining combined seas of 8 to 13 ft over the northeastern zones. These seas will subside and shift east of the forecast zones by Wednesday morning. A high pressure ridge axis will persist west of 60W in the vicinity of 29N through Thursday. The ridge will temporarily weaken as a cold front clips the northern zones Thursday night, then rebuild through early Saturday. This relatively tranquil pattern will support gentle to moderate winds under the ridge axis. Moderate to locally fresh winds will be the general rule over the southern zones, which will be farther removed from the ridge axis. Wave guidance indicates seas between 3-7 ft during this time frame across the SW N Atlantic zones, except for 7-9 feet east of 60W. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.