000 AGXX40 KNHC 310608 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 108 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure centered over the central Gulf will meander over the northeastern Gulf the next several days. This will support mainly gentle winds over the northern half of the Gulf and moderate easterly winds over the southern half of the Gulf through today with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Once the high is over the northeastern Gulf tonight expect moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf and moderate to fresh easterly winds over the southern Gulf with seas ranging from 3 to 5 ft over these areas. Light to gentle winds will prevail under the ridge over the northeastern gulf with seas of 1 to 3 ft. This pattern will persist through the remainder of the work week and finally begin to break down on Saturday as a cold front approaches the northern Gulf coast. This front will be weak and will likely dissipate over the Gulf Saturday night with weak high pressure building over the northern Gulf for Sunday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The pressure gradient between ridging north of the Caribbean and lower pressures over Colombia will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south central Caribbean the next several days. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to Gale force tonight as the pressure gradient tightens in response to climatological low pressure temporarily deepening over Colombia. Model guidance indicates that the low will not be as deep subsequent nights which will allow the nocturnal increase of winds to remain just below gale force the remaining nights of this week. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will be common under the persistent strong to near gale winds over this portion of the Caribbean, peaking near 11 to 12 ft each night under the strongest winds. Fresh to locally strong winds near a stationary front from the Windward Passage to the eastern coast of Honduras will continue through tonight. The front will dissipate through tonight, helping to bring a slight decrease in winds over the area. The remainder of the Caribbean can expect mainly fresh trades through this weekend. Large trade induced swell of 7 to 10 ft will continue over the tropical Atlantic zones through the end of the week. Easterly winds are expected to remain between about 15 to 22 kt over these zones during this forecast period. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front remains from 31N63W to the Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from 31N66W to the Florida Straits. A brief gale that was occurring earlier this evening north of 30N between these two fronts should now be ending. The cold front will merge with the stationary front today, with the entire frontal system dissipating through Wednesday. Strong winds confined to north of 28N near these fronts will diminish today as high pressure builds eastward over the western Atlantic. Seas of 8 to 14 ft over our northeastern zones will subside and shift east of the forecast zones through tonight. A high pressure ridge axis will setup along 28N-29N tonight and persist between 29N-30N through Wednesday night. The ridge will temporarily weaken as a cold front clips the northern zones Thursday, then fill back in through early Saturday. This relatively tranquil pattern setting up will support gentle to moderate winds under the ridge axis with mainly moderate to locally fresh winds over our southern zones, which will be farther removed from the ridge axis. Wave guidance indicates seas between 3-7 ft during that time across our SW N Atlantic zones. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight into Wed. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.