000 AGXX40 KNHC 301735 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The tail end of a cold front is moving through the eastern Gulf. High pressure centered in Mexico near 25N100W will shift eastward into the central Gulf through Tuesday, and significantly decrease winds across the northern half of the basin overnight. A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region Tuesday through Saturday, with mostly benign marine conditions expected. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front extends across the northwest Caribbean from Cuba to Honduras. The front will move further southeastward tonight then stall and weaken from the Windward Passage to 15N83W on Tuesday. Scatterometer data at 1512 UTC showed fresh to strong northerly winds west of the front from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras. Winds and seas are expected to diminish west of the front overnight as the it weakens. Scatterometer data also shows fresh to strong east-northeast winds near the coast of Colombia. GFS model guidance indicates winds in this area will reach 35 kt between 00-12 UTC overnight, and a gale warning is in effect. The model guidance does not show gale force winds subsequent nights, but they remain strong...pulsing to near-gale each night between 03-09 UTC, with max seas building to 12-13 ft near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, a large area of fresh to strong trade winds east of 55W Wednesday and Thursday will produce 8-10 ft easterly swell that will affect the tropical North Atlantic and Windward Islands Wednesday night through Saturday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The surface map this afternoon shows a series of cold fronts making their way across the forecast area, a reflection of surges of cold air streaming off the southeast coast of the U.S. into the subtropical Atlantic. A cold front fropm 31N65W to eastern Cuba will reach from 26N65W to the Windward Passage Tuesday, then become stationary and weaken Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will build eastward from the Gulf of Mexico along 28N tonight through Thursday. This ridge will effectively block cold fronts moving off the U>S. east coast through the weekend. Expect better marine conditions across the region Wednesday through Saturday, with winds and seas gradually diminishing. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Tue night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.