000 AGXX40 KNHC 300600 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The western edge of a cold front is clipping the northeastern Gulf tonight supporting fresh to strong northwesterly winds, building seas to around 8 ft. High pressure over northeastern Mexico continues to support fresh to strong northerly winds over much of the southern Gulf tonight with the highest winds over the bay of Campeche. Seas over the Bay of Campeche will remain greater than 8 ft through the early morning. The center of the high will shift eastward this morning and become centered over the north-central Gulf by late this afternoon. This will result in a decrease in winds over the entire basin this morning through the afternoon, with winds becoming gentle to moderate over the majority of the Gulf basin by late today, except fresh northerly over the Bay of Campeche and southeast Gulf. The high will then meander over the northeastern Gulf through mid week. Seas will subside through the day today, decreasing to 3 to 5 ft by this afternoon, and 2 to 4 ft by Tuesday. Later this week the ridge will retrograde westward slightly which will result in fresh easterly winds developing over the southern Gulf Thursday. The next cold front is expected to reach the northern Gulf by Friday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front from central Cuba to Belize will continue to move southeastward today before stalling out from the Windward Passage to northeastern Nicaragua tonight. The front will then dissipate through the day Tuesday. Fresh to strong northerly winds northwest of the front will continue until the front dissipates, with strong northeast winds developing through the Windward Passage tonight and persisting through Tuesday night. Seas of 8 to 10 ft offshore the Yucatan and Belize coasts will diminish below 8 ft early on Tuesday. The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over Colombia will support fresh to strong east to northeast winds over the south-central Caribbean the next several days. The winds will pulse to near-gale tonight near the coast of Colombia. The high pressure building eastward toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday will help to enhance the trades over the south-central Caribbean Tuesday through Wednesday. The combination of the stronger trades and nocturnal terrain induced enhancements will likely result in gale-force winds along the coast of Colombia Tuesday night, and possibly again Wednesday night. The GFS operational for the past couple of runs has been indicating this scenario. The ridge to the north will weaken later somewhat later this week, decreasing the chances for gale- force winds. Mainly fresh trades are expected elsewhere over the Caribbean through the forecast period. Tradewind induced swell of 8 to 9 ft affecting the tropical Atlantic zones including near the Lesser Antilles will continue throughout the week. Winds over these zones will remain around 20 kt through the period, with slightly stronger winds remaining east of the area. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front from Bermuda to central Cuba will begin to advance eastward today as a secondary cold front, currently extending from 31N74W to central Florida, merges with the stationary front. Strong southwesterly winds will persist north of 27N east of the stationary front this morning, and after the fronts merge today through Tuesday, with seas 8 to 11 ft. Strong west to northwest winds currently west of the Stationary front north of 28N will follow within about 600 nm west of the front through Tuesday as the merged front moves eastward. Seas today over our northern waters will build to 8 to 14 ft under the large area of strong winds. High pressure will build eastward and across our forecast waters Monday night into Tuesday as the frontal system shifts east of the northern waters, and the southern portion of the front dissipates over the southern waters. This high will bring about improving winds and seas Tuesday through Thursday with a ridge axis becoming setup along about 28N. During this time frame gentle to light winds will prevail along the ridge axis with moderate to fresh winds around the periphery of the ridge. Seas of 3 to 7 ft will prevail during this time period. Late this week, another ridge will build across the western Atlantic which should re- enforce the fair conditions across the Atlantic zones. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Tue night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.