000 AGXX40 KNHC 291719 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1219 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure over northeast Mexico combined with low pressure near western Cuba continues to support gale force winds over the southwest Gulf, while gale force winds over the south-central Gulf have diminished recently. A stationary front is analyzed from the Straits of Florida to the low, with a cold front extending southwest of the low to over the Yucatan Peninsula. Mainly moderate to fresh winds prevail across the remainder of the gulf around a ridge axis which extends from the high over Mexico to the east along 26N. A recent altimeter pass along with buoy data shows large seas of 8 to 14 ft still over the southeast and southwest Gulf where the strong to gale force winds are, with 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. An upper level disturbance crossing the Gulf of Mexico is combining with moisture north of the front to support showers across the southeast half of the Gulf. These showers will shift eastward with the shortwave and exit the Gulf by tonight. The high will weaken through tonight while sliding eastward and becoming centered over the Gulf basin Monday into Monday night. The weakening of the high will allow for winds to diminish below gale force in the southwest Gulf by this evening, with fresh to strong northerly winds remaining thereafter for the overnight hours. A secondary front will clip the eastern Gulf through tonight with strong northwesterly winds and seas to 8 ft east of 87W. The winds over the southern Gulf will decrease to moderate on Monday as the high builds eastward. Seas will subside quickly to less than 8 ft Monday morning in response to the lighter winds. By Monday night, much more tranquil boating conditions are expected over the Gulf basin under high pressure, with light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft, with these conditions prevailing through Wednesday afternoon. The high center will become elongated by Wednesday evening through Friday across the northeastern Gulf. This will support mainly moderate to fresh easterly winds over the southern Gulf with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Gentle winds will continue over the northern Gulf during this time frame with seas of 3 ft or less. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front currently analyzed across the Yucatan Channel will push south-southeastward into the northwest Caribbean through the remainder of the afternoon as reinforcing cold air and high pressure drive the front out of the southern Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from central Cuba to Belize tonight, then become stationary from the Windward Passage to northeast coast of Nicaragua Monday night. The front will then gradually weaken through Tuesday. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 to 10 ft west of the front through Tuesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the south-central Caribbean through the week, and pulse to near gale force at times, particularly at night near the NW coast of Colombia, with seas reaching 10 to 12 ft. High pressure building eastward into the Central Atlantic has strengthened trade winds across the tropical north Atlantic zones, and is supporting 8 to 10 ft trade swell. The stronger winds will shift east of the area by tonight. However, the swell will continue to affect the Windward Islands and tropical north Atlantic zones Monday through Friday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front from 27N71W through the Straits of Florida will linger through the remainder of the afternoon while a forming cold front moves into the waters offshore of northern Florida. The boundaries will merge tonight, then will reach from 31N65W to central Cuba by early Monday, and from 25N65W to the Windward Passage Tuesday, before stalling out over the region and dissipating through Tuesday night. Strong southwesterly winds north of 27N east of the re-enforcing front will develop later this afternoon and evening, with strong west to northwest winds behind the front. Seas will build to 8 to 11 ft east of the front and 8 to 13 ft west of the front north of 27N. High pressure will build across the region behind the front Monday through Tuesday, which will improve conditions considerably over the Atlantic zones. A ridge will set up between 27N and 28N Tuesday through Wednesday night, resulting in light to gentle westerly winds in northern waters, and gentle to moderate easterly winds in southern waters. Looking ahead to late in the week, a weak cold front may clip the north waters, however little impact to winds and seas other than a brief wind shift is anticipated. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning this afternoon. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.