000 AGXX40 KNHC 290703 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure over northeastern Mexico continues to support gale force winds over the southwestern Gulf, north of a cold front that now extends from weak low pressure near 22N92W to around 17N91W. The gale force winds extend as far north as about 23N, with 20 to 30 kt winds as far north as 26N and as far east as 85W. A 0200 UTC altimeter pass over the western Gulf confirmed seas to 18 ft associated with this gale event. Mainly fresh winds cover the remainder of the Gulf basin tonight. An upper level disturbance crossing the Gulf of Mexico is combining with moisture north of the front to support showers across much of the Gulf basin, except along the northwestern Gulf. These showers will shift eastward with the shortwave and exit the Gulf by tonight. The high will weaken through today and then slide eastward tonight, becoming centered over the Gulf basin Monday into Monday night. The weakening of the high will allow for winds to diminish below gale force through early this afternoon. However, fresh to strong northwesterly winds will continue over the southern Gulf well into this evening. A secondary front will clip the northeastern Gulf tonight with strong northwesterly winds and seas to 8 ft. The winds over the southern Gulf will decrease to moderate on Monday as the high builds eastward. Seas will subside quickly below 8 ft Monday morning in response to the lighter winds. By Monday night, tranquil conditions are expected over much of the Gulf basin under high pressure, with light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft. These conditions will then prevail until Wednesday afternoon. The high center will become elongated by Wednesday evening through Friday across the northeastern Gulf. This will support mainly moderate to fresh easterly winds over the southern Gulf with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Gentle winds will continue over the northern Gulf during this time frame with seas 3 ft or less. . ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front currently situated across the Yucatan Channel will push south-southeastward into the northwest Caribbean today as reinforcing cold air and high pressure drive the front out of the southern Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from central Cuba to Belize tonight, then become stationary from the Windward Passage to northeast coast of Nicaragua Monday night. The front will then gradually weaken through Tuesday. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 to 10 ft west of the front through Tuesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday, and pulse to near gale force at times, particularly at night near the NW coast of Colombia, with seas reaching 10 ft. High pressure building eastward into the Central Atlantic has strengthened trade winds across the tropical north Atlantic zones, and is supporting 8 to 9 ft trade swell. The stronger winds will shift east of the area by tonight. However, the swell will continue to affect the Windward Islands and tropical north Atlantic zones Monday through Thursday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front from 31N65W to western Cuba will become absorbed by a cold front that will move off northeast Florida later this morning, reaching the stationary front Sunday night. The reinforcing cold front will extend from 31N66W across the Bahamas to central Cuba Monday, and from 25N65W to the Windward Passage Tuesday, before stalling out over the region and dissipating through Tuesday night. Strong southwesterly winds north of 27N east of the re-enforcing front will develop later today as well as strong westerly winds west of the front. Seas will build to 8 to 11 ft east of the front and 8 to 13 ft west of the front north of 27N. High pressure will build across the region behind the front Monday through Tuesday, which will improve conditions considerably over the Atlantic zones. A ridge will set up between 27N and 28N Tuesday through Wednesday night, resulting in light to gentle westerly winds in northern waters, and gentle to moderate easterly winds in southern waters. Late in the week a cold front may clip the northeastern waters with strong westerly winds and seas to 8 ft. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning early today into today. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Gale Warning early today. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.