000 AGXX40 KNHC 281758 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1258 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure building southward from Texas into eastern Mexico in combination with an area of low pressure centered near 22N96W along a stationary frontal boundary snaking across the Bay of Campeche will induce gale force winds north and west of the front primarily south of 24N, initially west of 96W gradually spreading to west of 92W as the front sags southward in the Bay of Campeche and near the Veracruz coast of Mexico. Reinforcing cold air will push the front south of the area Sunday, with gale force winds expected to end by 12Z Sunday morning. High pressure will drift eastward over the region Monday and Tuesday, with winds becoming light and variable near the high and marine conditions improving significantly as a result. Expect seas to rapidly subside Sunday night and Monday as the front exits the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A front currently situated across the Yucatan Channel will remain nearly stationary overnight, then push south-southeastward into the northwest Caribbean Sunday as reinforcing cold air and high pressure drive the remainder of the front out of the southern Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from western Cuba to Belize Sunday night, from western Cuba to Honduras Monday, and from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua Tuesday. The front will stall and gradually weaken Tuesday night and Wednesday. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8-10 ft west of the front as it pushes into the western Caribbean through Tuesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday, and pulse to near gale force at times, particularly at night near the NW coast of Colombia. GFS model guidance indicates the strongest winds and best chance for minimal gales will be tonight between 03Z-09Z. High pressure building eastward into the Central Atlantic will strengthen trade winds east of the tropical north Atlantic zones, but will induce 8-9 ft trade swell which will affect the Windward Islands Monday through Thursday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front from 31N66W to western Cuba will stall and weaken through Monday. Another winter blast of reinforcing cold air will move off northeast Floria Sunday morning, then catch up to and merge with the aforementioned stationary front across the region Sunday night. The reinforcing cold front will reach from 31N74W to Miami Florida Sunday. The merged cold front will extend from 31N66W across the Bahamas to central Cuba Monday, and from 25N65W to the Windward Passage Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region behind the front Monday through Tuesday, with a nice ridge setting up between 27N and 28N Tuesday through Wednesday night, resulting in light to gentle westerly winds in northern waters, and gentle to moderate easterly winds in southern waters. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Gale Warning tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.