000 AGXX40 KNHC 280749 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 249 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to a stationary front and low pressure over the southwestern Gulf. A re-enforcing surge of cold air north of the front entering the Gulf today will force the frontal boundary southward and over the Caribbean on Sunday. High pressure over the central United States will extend a ridge southward over eastern Mexico as the cold air surge occurs today. This will force a gale to develop over the southwestern Gulf today and will persist through Sunday morning. Current wave model guidance peaks wave heights at near 16 ft over the southwestern Gulf tonight. A broad area of seas 8 ft or greater covering the southwestern Gulf will persist through Sunday night. Also, widespread showers are expected to develop over the central and southern Gulf today through Sunday as the upper trough north of the basin digs southeastward. The center of the high will shift eastward over the Gulf basin Monday through Tuesday which will bring about much lighter winds and seas subsiding to 2 to 3 ft by Tuesday morning. These tranquil conditions will last through Wednesday, before return flow increases across the western basin later this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Winds along the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale each night through the forecast period with seas peaking near 11-12 ft. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sunday, then reach from central Cuba to Belize Sunday night, and from eastern Cuba to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border Monday evening. Fresh to strong north to northeast flow and 7-9 ft seas will accompany the front, but will diminish over most areas in the western Caribbean Monday night and Tuesday. A broad area of 8-9 ft swell supported by fresh trades will propagate across the tropical Atlc zones beginning today and lasting through the forecast period. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front from 31N69W to the Florida straits will slow its advance and weaken from 29N65W to the central Bahamas through Sunday. Strong southwesterly winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft will persist east of the front north of about 28N through this time period. Strong westerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail north of 30N and west of the front. A re- enforcing cold front will enter the northwestern waters on Sunday and reach from 31N65W to the central Bahamas Monday morning, then from 24N65W to the Windward Passage Tuesday morning. Strong southwesterly winds north of 28N and seas to 11 ft are expected east of this front. Strong west to northwest winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft are expected north of 27N, west of this front through Monday night. High pressure will build over the northwestern waters Tuesday which will bring light winds under the dome of high pressure and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere with seas of 3 to 6 ft over most of forecast waters Tuesday night through Thursday. The exception may be a front clipping the northwest zones Wednesday night with fresh winds and seas to 8 ft. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into Sun. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Gale Warning tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.