000 AGXX40 KNHC 260652 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Friday, then medium thereafter. A cold front was analyzed from south-central Louisiana to east of the Texas coastal waters to near Tampico, Mexico. Recent scatterometer data sampled fresh to near gale force northerly winds behind the front, while elevated platforms west of the front reported higher winds. Seas are 7-9 ft behind the front. A surface trough was noted in the southwest Gulf ahead of the front with light to moderate winds on either side. Ridging was over the remainder of the basin reaching through the Straits of Florida from a parent high center located northeast of the Bahamas. Mainly moderate return flow was noted north of 22N and east of the front, with 4-7 ft seas. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Gulf to Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon, with winds within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz increasing to minimal gale force during the afternoon hours, and with fresh to strong northerly flow elsewhere behind the front. The front will then stall from the Straits of Florida to the south-central Gulf to the southwest Gulf Friday night. Low pressure may try to form along the stalled out front offshore of Veracruz, while high pressure ridging builds in the wake of the front across the northern Gulf states. This will result in a relatively tight pressure gradient across the western Gulf north of 22N by Saturday morning. All global model guidance is now in agreement of gale force winds while ensemble 34-kt wind probabilities have increased to near 50 percent in the west-central Gulf Saturday afternoon and night, spreading southward into the southwest Gulf Saturday night into early Sunday as the front gets pushed southward through Sunday afternoon with high pressure north of it getting reinforced. The front will finally move completely south of the basin Sunday afternoon, while another cold front clips the eastern Gulf Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with fresh to strong northerly flow behind it north of 26N east of 94W. High pressure will then build across the northern Gulf for the remainder of Monday into Tuesday with much more tranquil boating conditions. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The remnants of a strong cold front linger in the basin in the form of two troughs, one analyzed from the northeast Caribbean to near 14N72W, and the other trough analyzed south of 15N along 81W. Recent scatterometer data along with ships and buoys measured mainly moderate east to southeast flow across the waters west of 75W, except fresh just north of the coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades were reported in the eastern Caribbean, while trades in the central portion have increased to fresh to strong with low pressure deepening over northern Colombia and high pressure north of the basin. Both troughs will dissipate through the day. Fresh to strong winds will persist well offshore of the northwest of Colombia through the remainder of the week and Saturday with winds pulsing to 30 kt during the overnight and early morning hours, and seas building to 8-12 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas will prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean. A cold front is now forecast to move south of the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sunday morning, reaching from central Cuba to north- central Honduras by Monday morning, then from near the eastern tip of Cuba to eastern Honduras Monday evening. Fresh to strong north to northeast flow and building seas of 7-9 ft will follow the front, with winds also increasing to fresh to strong within 60 nm of Nicaragua Monday evening due to a tightening pressure gradient. In the tropical north Atlantic, the cold front that moved through the Caribbean has entered the waters north of 16N. Moderate trades were noted by scatterometer data, except light and variable winds north of 16N near the front. Seas are 4-6 ft, except 3-4 ft where the light winds are present. The front will stall and dissipate through tonight, and moderate trades with 4-7 ft seas can be expected across the waters this evening through Friday evening. High pressure will build northeast of the area thereafter, increasing trades to fresh this weekend through early next week, allowing for fresh seas to build to 7-9 ft. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The tail end of the strong cold front that moved through the majority of the basin earlier this week is lingering in the far southeast part. Otherwise, 1019 mb high pressure near 26N70W dominates the remainder of the area. Light anticyclonic winds were observed by scatterometer and buoy data within 180 nm of the high center, with fresh to strong southwest flow north of 30N west of 75W, and moderate anticyclonic winds elsewhere. Large lingering seas in mixed northeast and northwest swell of 8-14 ft were across the northeast portion as measured by recent altimeter data, once again slightly higher than any available wave model guidance. Seas of 4-7 ft were observed elsewhere, except 2 ft or less southwest of the Bahamas. The tail end of the cold front over the southeast portion will stall out and dissipate through the day. The high center will shift east of 65W by the afternoon as the next cold front approaches the southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. The front will move into the coastal waters during the late afternoon with the southwest flow ahead of it increasing to near gale force north of 30N, with gale warnings in place north of 31N. The front will reach from 31N71W to south Florida by Friday morning, then from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Saturday morning, stalling from northeast to southwest across the central waters through early Sunday. Another cold front is forecast to move into the northwest waters by Sunday afternoon, reaching from 31N71W to the Straits of Florida Monday morning, then from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Tuesday morning. Several rounds of fresh to near gale force winds will accompany each of the fronts across the waters north of 27N, both ahead of and behind the boundary. Seas will also build to at least 8-12 ft with the passage of each front. Winds will remain mainly moderate south of 27N, with seas of 3-5 ft across the open waters. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sat night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sat night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.