000 AGXX40 KNHC 250825 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 325 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Friday, then low to medium this weekend. High pressure at 1016 mb is analyzed near the Straits of Florida with ridging extending west-northwest to the Texas coastal plain. Elongated and deepening low pressure troughing is analyzed to the west extending across eastern Mexico ahead of a cold front which is diving to the southeast across Texas. Recent scatterometer along with in-situ observations report fresh to strong southerly return flow in the western Gulf, with moderate to fresh return flow in the central Gulf, and light and variable winds in the eastern Gulf nearest to the high center. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in the western Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere, except up to 5-6 ft near the Straits of Florida where lingering northwest swell continues to decay. The cold front over Texas will move into the Texas coastal waters this morning and afternoon reaching from the Florida Big Bend to near 26N91W to Veracruz, Mexico by Thursday morning, then from the Straits of Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula and the southwest Gulf by Friday morning where it will stall and gradually dissipate through Friday night. Fresh to strong northerly flow and building seas will follow the front, with winds briefly increasing to minimal gale force offshore of Veracruz Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas will temporarily diminish and subside across the basin late Thursday night into early Friday. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front later Friday, and this high combined with low pressure troughing in the southwest Gulf, remnants of the cold front, will produce a tight pressure gradient Friday afternoon through the weekend, especially across the central and southern Gulf. Global model guidance now indicates low pressure forming along this remnant trough over the southwest Gulf this weekend, with at least strong to near gale force winds across the central Gulf on the north-northeast side of the low, with the potential for minimal gale force winds. Uncertainty exists with the evolution of this feature, so no gale conditions will be headlined just yet. Otherwise, a reinforcing cold front may clip the far northeast Gulf Saturday night into early Sunday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The remnants of a cold front are analyzed from the Dominican Republic through 15N77W to near western Panama. Mainly light northeast to east winds are observed across the basin, with 2-4 ft seas reported in the eastern Caribbean, 3-5 ft seas across the western Caribbean, and mainly 2 ft or less in between. The remnants of the front will completely decay this morning with trades becoming re-established across the basin through the afternoon as high pressure builds eastward just north of the basin. The pressure gradient will tighten across the central Caribbean this evening and overnight with northeast-east flow increasing to fresh to strong off the northwest coast of Colombia, as well as south of Hispaniola. Winds will diminish south of Hispaniola by the afternoon, however, the winds near the coast of Colombia will expand in coverage and will pulse to 30 kt during the overnight hours starting Thursday night through the upcoming weekend. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas will build to 7-10 ft in the central Caribbean as the winds increase, with 3-6 ft seas elsewhere, except 1-2 ft in the northwest Caribbean north of 18N west of Cuba and Jamaica. In the tropical north Atlantic, expect mainly moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas through the end of the week. Trades will increase to fresh this weekend as high pressure builds northeast of the area, helping to build seas to 7-9 ft Saturday night and Sunday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A strong cold front is analyzed from east of the area near 31N60W through 22N65W to near the Mona Passage. A reinforcing surface trough is behind the front reaching from 31N65W to 24N70W. Recent scatterometer data sampled gale force west-northwest winds north of 27N west of the trough across offshore zone AMZ115 where a gale warning remains in effect. Southerly gale force winds continue east of the front, however these winds are now north and east of the offshore waters forecast area. A large area of 10-17 ft seas continues to be observed north of 23N and west of the front to the Bahamas. Fresh to strong northwest flow is observed elsewhere outside the Bahamas, with moderate northwest winds southwest of the Bahamas with high pressure analyzed near the Straits of Florida. The front will continue to shift east of the area today with winds and seas gradually diminishing and subsiding as the high pressure area shifts eastward. The gale force winds will diminish across offshore zone AMZ115 late this afternoon into the evening. The high will move to near 27N70W late tonight into early Thursday with southwest flow on the northwest periphery of it increasing to fresh to strong off the southeast United States coast, ahead of the next cold front. That front is forecast to move off the Carolina coast Thursday morning, reaching from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral, Florida to southwest Florida by Thursday evening, then from 31N68W to the central Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba Friday evening, then from 31N60W to the southeast Bahamas Saturday. The fresh to strong southwest flow ahead of the front will spread eastward across all of the waters north of 27N, with fresh to strong west-northwest flow behind the front. Winds will be near gale force north of 30N, and gale conditions are possible north of 31N. Seas will build to 8-12 ft north of 29N Thursday afternoon into the weekend. A reinforcing cold front will rotate across primarily the northern waters Sunday and Sunday night, bringing another surge of fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind this next front. Seas will build to 8-14 ft, highest along and near 31N, Sunday and Sunday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.