000 AGXX40 KNHC 221941 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 241 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Gale force winds follow a powerful cold front currently reaching from Pensacola Florida to Veracruz Mexico. The front will sweep east of the Gulf through tonight, with gale force winds and seas as high as 19 ft spreading over much of the region north of 22N. Winds will eventually diminish to below gale force over the eastern Gulf early Monday morning. Conditions will greatly improve Monday and Monday night from west to east as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high will move from northern Mexico this evening to the Bay of Campeche Monday evening, to near the Straits of Florida Tuesday evening before exiting east of the area by mid-week as the next cold front approaches the basin from the northwest. The next cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Wednesday morning, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the southwest Gulf by Thursday morning, pushing southeast of the basin by Friday morning. A surge of fresh to strong southerly winds is likely ahead of the front west of 94W Tuesday and Tuesday night, with fresh to strong northwest flow possible behind the front across the western and central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong southerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted in a band from near Swan Island to the Yucatan Channel in the northwest Caribbean. These winds and seas are active ahead of a strong cold front in the Gulf of Mexico approaching the region. The front will move through the Yucatan Channel tonight, and continue eastward eventually reaching from central Cuba to eastern Honduras midday Monday. A few thunderstorms and strong winds will accompany the front over the area north of 20N, within 150 nm either side of the front. Seas will reach 12 ft in the Yucatan Channel due in part to northwest swell. Winds and seas will diminish through Monday night as the front reaches a position from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua, with the southern portion of the front weakening. A much weaker fragment of the front will pass the Mona Passage Tuesday night, then east of the Leewards through mid week leaving mainly gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the basin. The next cold front will approach the northwest Caribbean by the end of the week. Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, expect mainly gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft to continue through the forecast period. The only change will be the decaying southerly portion of the cold front which will move by north of 15N Thursday causing winds to briefly shift near the boundary. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Ridging along 23N/24N is weakening and shifting east ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The front will enter the Atlantic waters off northeast Florida tonight. Southerly winds ahead of the front will reach gale force north of 26N tonight and tomorrow, with strong northwest winds following the front. Seas will reach as high as 18 ft just ahead of the front north of 28N tonight and early Monday, with 12 to 16 ft over a broad area north of the Bahamas and east of northeast Florida following the front Monday. Winds and seas will be gradually diminishing by late Tuesday as the front reaches from Bermuda to Dominican Republic. A broad area of 8 to 13 ft seas and strong northwest winds covering the area east of Bahamas will subside from west to east through Wednesday night as high pressure builds behind eastward the front. The next cold front will move off the southeast coast of the United States early Thursday, moving across the waters off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas through the end of the week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning today into tonight. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Gale Warning today into tonight. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... Gale Warning today into Mon. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning tonight into Mon. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning tonight into Mon night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Gale Warning tonight into Mon. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Gale Warning Mon into Mon night. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. National Hurricane Center.