000 AGXX40 KNHC 211856 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted over the south central Gulf between 1019 mb high pressure over the Bahamas and lower pressure over the southern Plains. A few thunderstorms are active off Pensacola Florida, at the end of a squall line moving across the Deep South states. Areas of fog lowering visibilities to 3 nm over the northwest Gulf, with dense fog near the coast, have mostly lifted. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf waters from the northwest late tonight into early Sunday, quickly reaching from southeast Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Sunday morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday evening. A band of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the front. This front will bring a significant increase in winds and seas across the Gulf waters. Strong to gale force winds are possible behind the front Sunday through Monday across the northern and central Gulf, possibly spilling into the southeast Gulf. A large area of seas building up to 16-20 ft is expected behind the front. Conditions will gradually improve from west to east Monday night through Tuesday night as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high will shift to over the northern Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday morning, then to over south Florida by Wednesday morning, with return flow setting up across the basin by the middle of the upcoming week. The next cold front may enter the northwest Gulf Wednesday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A scatterometer pass from 16 UTC indicated fresh to strong southeast to south winds in a plume from the coast of eastern Honduras through the Yucatan Channel. These winds are within a tight gradient between high pressure over the Bahamas and lower pressure reaching across the western Gulf of Mexico into northern Central America. The same scatterometer pass also indicated moderate to fresh trade winds off Colombia, which have diminished recently as the high pressure over the Bahamas weakened. Seas are building as high as 6 ft in the area of fresh to strong southerly winds over the northwest Caribbean, and generally 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. A cold front will move rapidly across the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, and pass southeast of the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean late Sunday accompanied by strong winds and building seas. The front will reach from the Windward Passage to the eastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night, with strong southwest winds expected near the Windward Passage just ahead of the front. The portion of the front extending over the Caribbean will wash out through the middle of the week. Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, expect mainly gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft to continue through the forecast period. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A 1018 mb high pressure area over the central Bahamas will weaken and shift east, following a cold front that exited east of the region this morning. Light to moderate anticyclonic winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted throughout the region. Southerly winds will increase late Saturday over the waters north of the Bahamas and east of northeast Florida ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. These winds will increase to 30 kt late Saturday night and gale force by late Sunday. The front will move off the southeast coast of the United States Sunday night, with strong to gale force winds spreading eastward both ahead of and behind the front. Seas will build to 15-18 ft across a large portion of the forecast waters through the early part of the upcoming week. The front will finally weaken and move east of 65W through mid week, with high pressure moving in from the southern Gulf of Mexico to south Florida then to east of the Bahamas. Conditions will greatly improve from west to east as the high builds in the wake of the front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning Sun. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Gale Warning Sun into Sun night. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... Gale Warning Sun into Sun night. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sun. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning Sun into Sun night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Gale Warning Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.