000 AGXX40 KNHC 210749 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 249 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure prevails across the area with a ridge extending from the Straits of Florida to the central Texas coast. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict gentle to moderate southerly return flow across the basin, except just north of the Yucatan Peninsula where winds are fresh to strong. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range east of 85W and in the Bay of Campeche, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf waters from the northwest late tonight into early Sunday, quickly reaching from southeast Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Sunday morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday evening. A band of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the front. This front will bring a significant increase in winds and seas across the Gulf waters. Strong to gale force winds are possible behind the front Sunday through Monday across the northern and central Gulf, possibly spilling into the southeast Gulf. A large area of seas building up to 16-20 ft is expected behind the front. Conditions will gradually improve from west to east Monday night through Tuesday night as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high will shift to over the northern Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday morning, then to over south Florida by Wednesday morning, with return flow setting up across the basin by the middle of the upcoming week. The next cold front may enter the northwest Gulf Wednesday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure prevails north of the forecast waters. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict a very small area of fresh to locally strong winds just offshore of the northwest coast of Colombia, fresh to strong southeast winds just northeast of the Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft off the coast of Colombia and northeast of the Gulf of Honduras, 3-5 ft elsewhere over the south central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean waters, and 4-5 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. The area of high pressure will weaken over the next couple of days, which will bring a decrease in trades across the Caribbean. Southeast to south winds are expected to increase across the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This front is currently forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel and the northwest Caribbean Sunday night, accompanied by strong winds and building seas. The front will reach from the Windward Passage to the eastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night, with strong southwest winds expected near the Windward Passage just ahead of the front. The portion of the front extending over the Caribbean will wash out through the middle of the week. Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, expect mainly gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft to continue through the forecast period. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The tail end of a cold front extends across the southeast portion of the forecast area with high pressure located over the central Bahamas. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin around the high. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range east of the bahamas, except 3-5 ft north of 27N west of 77W, and 1-2 ft west of the Bahamas. High pressure over the central Bahamas will shift east this weekend as a strong cold front approaches the western portion of the area. Southerly winds will increase to 20-30 kt across the northwest part of the forecast area by early Sunday ahead of the cold front, increasing to gale force Sunday evening. The cold front will move off the southeast coast of the United States Sunday night, with strong to gale force winds spreading eastward both ahead of and behind the front. Seas will build to 15-18 ft across a large portion of the forecast waters through the early part of the upcoming week. The front will finally weaken and move east of 65W Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with high pressure moving in from the southern Gulf of Mexico to south Florida by early Wednesday, then to east of the Bahamas Wednesday night. Conditions will greatly improve from west to east as the high builds in the wake of the front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning Sun into Sun night. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Gale Warning Sun into Sun night. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... Gale Warning Sun into Sun night. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sun into Sun night. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning Sun into Sun night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.