000 AGXX40 KNHC 191655 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1155 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to High confidence. A stationary front extends over the western Gulf from the Louisiana/Texas border to near Tampico Mexico. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict gentle to moderate winds west of the front, moderate to fresh winds east of the front to 90W and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the eastern Gulf, 4-6 ft over the central Gulf, and 3-4 ft over the western Gulf. The front, accompanied by active weather, will move across the north Gulf waters today, then dissipate over the north-central waters by early Friday. A stronger cold front is forecast to push across the Gulf waters during the upcoming weekend. The front will enter the northwestern Gulf Saturday night, reaching from southeast Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Sunday morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday evening. A band of showers and thunderstorms will be accompany with the front. This front will bring a significant increase in winds and seas across the Gulf waters. Strong to gale force winds are possible behind the front Sunday and Sunday night, with a large area of seas building up to 18-19 ft behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure prevails north of the forecast waters. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds over the north central Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds over the eastern and western Caribbean, and gentle winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the north central Caribbean, 3-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean, and 5-6 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. The area of high pressure will weaken later this week, which will bring a decrease in trades across the Caribbean. During the upcoming weekend, southeast to south winds are expected to increase across the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This front is currently forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel and the northwest Caribbean Sunday night, accompanied by strong winds and building seas. Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, expect mainly gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front extends over the northern waters. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict fresh to strong winds over the northeast waters, and light to gentle winds over the remainder of the forecast waters. Seas are in the 8 to 13 ft range over the northeast waters, 3-5 ft over the remainder of the forecast waters outside the Bahamas, and 1-2 ft west of the Bahamas. The front will continue to move southeast across the eastern zones on Friday, reaching the southeast waters by Friday night into Saturday while weakening. Southerly winds will increase to 20-30 kt across the northwest part of the forecast area on Sunday ahead of a cold front expected to move off the southeast coast of the United States on Sunday night. Strong to gale force winds are expected over the northern zones both ahead of, and behind, the front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Mon. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Mon. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster AL. National Hurricane Center.