000 AGXX40 KNHC 190641 RRB MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0140 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W AND THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP, BUOY, AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF, 3-4 FT OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF, AND 3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO NORTHEAST MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE DISSIPATING. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT, REACHING FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, WITH A LARGE AREA OF SEAS BUILDING UP TO 16-18 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP, BUOY, AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, 4-7 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, 4-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, 5-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, AND 6-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS WEEK, WHICH WILL WEAKEN TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS , GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT RANGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP, BUOY, AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS, AND 1-2 FT WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT, EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 28N70W TO 30N77W BY THURSDAY MORNING. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT FORECAST ZONE AMZ115 TONIGHT, WITH THE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF 65W BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. SEAS UP TO 13-14 FT IN NW SWELL WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY, REACHING THE SOUTHEAST WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT, OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS, PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.