000 AGXX40 KNHC 180756 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 256 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to high confidence. A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region producing mainly moderate to fresh SE winds and seas generally between 4 and 6 ft. Areas of fog, dense in some locations, are developing over the NW Gulf and along the the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Visibilities will be reduced to less than one mile. A stationary front remains inland near the coast of Texas. A reinforcing push of cold air will allow the front to move across the NW Gulf tonight into Thursday, reaching a position from SW Louisiana to NE Mexico by early Thursday afternoon, and from SE Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Thursday night. Southerly return flow will slightly increase just ahead of the front, that is forecast to move across the north waters through Friday while dissipating. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected in association with this front. A stronger cold front is forecast to sweep across the Gulf waters during the upcoming weekend. Currently, model guidance indicates that the front will enter the northwestern Gulf Saturday night, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Sunday morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday evening. A band of showers and thunderstorms will be associated with the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the front, with strong to gale force winds behind the front on Sunday. With this scenario, wave guidance is currently forecasting a large area of seas building up to 16-18 ft across the Gulf waters behind the front. The current forecast package already shows gale conditions possible mainly across the forecast zones N of 22N W of 87W Sunday and Sunday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong NE-E winds across the majority of the east and central Caribbean, including through the Windward and Mona passages, and in the lee of Cuba through tonight. Near gale force winds are expected to continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia also through tonight, with seas up to 11 ft. The ridge north of the region will shift southeast, become elongated, and weaken later this week. This will allow for trades across the Caribbean to decrease beginning Thursday. During the upcoming weekend, SE-S winds are forecast to increase across the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This front is currently forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Sunday night with strong winds and building seas. Over the tropical north Atlantic waters moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted based on scatterometer data. Generally tranquil conditions are expected over the next several days as high pressure shifts closer to the region. As a result, expect mainly gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft in NE-E swell. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A ridge axis is over the north waters. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7-8 ft are noted S of 22N on the southern periphery of the ridge, including the approach to the Windward Passage. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft prevail N of 22N under the influence of the ridge. Winds will begin to increase to 20-25 kt across the north waters later today ahead of a cold front approaching the forecast region from the north. The front will enter the north waters tonight and reach from 31N63W to 28N70W to 30N77W by Thursday morning. Minimal gale force winds in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front will briefly affect the forecast zone AMZ115 tonight. Then, the gale conditions are expected to shift east of 65W by Thursday morning. West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 kt are expected behind this front. Seas up to 13-14 ft in NW swell will build in the wake of the front across zone AMZ115 by Thursday morning. The front will continue to move SE across the eastern zones on Friday, reaching the SE waters by Friday night while weakening. Southerly winds will increase to 20-25 kt across the NW part of the forecast area on Sunday with seas building to 8-9 ft. These winds may reach gale force across AMZ111 by Sunday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.