000 AGXX40 KNHC 170723 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 223 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to high confidence. A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region producing mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds, with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local effects induced by a thermal trough, and across the Straits of Florida. A stationary front is near the coast of Texas generating some shower activity over the far NW Gulf. A reinforcing push of cold air will allow the front to move across the NW Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday, reaching a position from SW Louisiana to NE Mexico by early Thursday afternoon, and from SE Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Thursday evening. Southerly return flow will slightly increase just ahead of the front, that is forecast to move across the north waters through Friday while dissipating. Seas will remain generally between 4 and 6 ft. A stronger cold front is forecast to sweep the Gulf waters during the upcoming weekend. Currently, marine guidance suggests fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front, and strong to gale force winds behind the front on Sunday, with seas building up to 14-15 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Caribbean Sea, including through the Windward and Mona passages, and in the lee of Cuba through Wednesday night. Near gale force winds are expected to continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia each night during this time period, with seas up to 11 ft. The ridge north of the region will shift southeast, become elongated, and weaken later this week. This will allow for trades across the Caribbean to decrease beginning Thursday. During the upcoming weekend, winds are forecast to increase across the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Over the tropical Atlantic forecast waters fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and seas of 8 ft are affecting mainly the waters north of about 15N. These marine conditions are expected to disminish today. By tonight, expect NE-E winds in the 15-20 kt range and seas of 6-7 ft. Generally tranquil conditions are then expected mid to late this week as high pressure shifts closer to the region. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Scatterometer data and several ship observations provided observations of fresh to strong winds across the waters S of 25N, including the Straits of Florida. Seas, associated with the swell event that has been affecting the southern zones the past few days, continue to subside, and buoy and ship observations indicate seas generally of 8-9 ft east of the Bahamas. The strong high pressure that has been supporting the strong winds across the region will slide southeastward reaching a position near Bermuda in about 24 hours while slightly weakeaning. Early on Wednesday, a ridge axis will extend across the north waters. This will bring a decrease in winds over the southern zones through the end of the forecast period. A cold front is forecast by the global models to approach the northern zones late on Wednesday, and move across the NE part of the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. Fresh to strong SW-W winds of 20-30 kt and building seas of 9-10 ft are expected ahead of the front, but mainly across forecast zone AMZ115. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front on Thursday morning, with building seas up to 12-13 ft in NW swell. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.