000 AGXX40 KNHC 151828 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 128 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A ridge axis extends across the northern Gulf coast and through Tuesday will support mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds, with the exception of nighttime fresh to locally strong winds near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local effects induced by a thermal trough, and across the Straits of Florida. Seas will remain generally between 4 and 7 ft, except around 8 ft in the Straits of Florida. Model guidance continues to indicate that the next cold front will reach the coast of Texas by Tuesday night, then stall and lift north while dissipating. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected ahead of the frontal boundary that could affect the far NW Gulf. This front will act to weaken the ridge axis along the northern Gulf coast, which will allow for the nocturnal Yucatan wind enhancements as well as strong winds over the straits of Florida to diminish by Tuesday night. Another cold front is then expected to enter the NW Gulf by Thursday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Caribbean Sea, including through the Atlantic passages, and in the lee of Cuba through Wednesday night. Near gale force winds are expected to continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia each night during this time period, with seas up to 11 ft. The ridge north of the region will shift southeast, become elongated, and weaken later this week. This will allow for trades across the Caribbean to decrease by several knots beginning Thursday. A swell event over the western Atlantic continues to propagate through the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola, and across the Tropical N Atlantic zones. Seas are forecast to subside to 7-8 ft on Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A broad area of fresh to strong northeasterly winds and northeast swell that has been affecting the southern zones the past few days is now becoming confined to mainly south of a line from the Florida Straits to about 23N55W. These fresh to strong winds will continue south of this line through Tuesday night. Seas to 8 ft will be possible east of the central Bahamas during this time period. To the north of this line, gentle to moderate winds and seas of about 4 to 7 ft will prevail through mid week. High pressure that has been in part responsible for supporting the strong winds and large seas will slide southeastward to near 28N60W Wednesday while weakening. This will bring a decrease in winds over the southern zones Wednesday through the end of the forecast period. By Thursday night a cold front is forecast by global models to approach the northern zones, which will bring about an increase in winds to 20 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 10 ft, mainly north of 28N as indicated with the latest model runs. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.