000 AGXX40 KNHC 150721 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 221 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A ridge dominates most of the Gulf waters anchored on a 1029 mb high pressure located over the State of Georgia. This system is producing mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds, with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local effects induced by a thermal trough, and across the Straits of Florida. The most recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Seas are generally between 4 and 7 ft. Little change in the weather pattern and associated features is expected over the next several days. Marine guidance suggests that the next cold front will reach the coast of Texas by Tuesday night, then stall and lift north while dissipating. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected ahead of the frontal boundary that could affect the far NW Gulf. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Thursday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region combined with the Colombian/Panamaniam low will continue to support fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Caribbean Sea, including through the Atlantic passages, and in the lee of Cuba. Based on scatterometer data, the strongest winds are near the coast of Colombia, where NE winds of 25-30 kt are noted with seas up to 11 ft. Winds will slightly diminish across the basin, today as a low pressure system moves eastward north of the area. Then, fresh to strong winds will persist across much of the basin through Wednesday, with the strongest winds of 25-30 kt across the south-central Caribbean. A swell event over the western Atlantic continues to propagate through the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola, and across the Tropical N Atlantic zones. Seas are forecast to subside to 8-9 ft today, and to 7-8 ft on Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong NE-E winds across the forecast region south of 25N, including the waters between the Bahamas and northern Cuba and the Straits of Florida. A swell event continues to affect the forecast waters, however sea heights have sudsided some compared to yesterday night. Currently, buoy observations and an altimeter pass indicate seas generally in the 8-10 ft range, reaching 11 ft across the eastern part of forecast zone AMZ127. Seas will continue to subside to 8-9 ft S of 25N later today, and to 7-8 ft S of 22N on Monday. The aerial extent of the fresh to strong winds will also decrease today as a low pressure system moves eastward just north of the forecast area. The associated cold front will reach the north waters late today, extending roughly along 29N tonight, and along 28N on Monday. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 5-6 ft are expected in the wake of the front, that is forecast to dissipate across the forecast waters by Monday night. Another cold front is expected to approach the north waters on Thursday, and move across the northern part of the forecast region on Thursday night. This second front is expected to bring an increase in winds and seas. Marine guidance suggests SW-W winds of 20-30 kt and seas building to 9-10 ft across forecast zones AMZ113 and AMZ115 in association with this front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.