000 AGXX40 KNHC 141824 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 124 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A high pressure ridge axis that has setup to the north of the northern Gulf coast will remain in tact through early next week. This pattern will support fresh east to southeast winds over the majority of the Gulf basin with seas generally between 4 and 7 ft. The exceptions to this are a thermal trough that will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and move west over the bay of Campeche each evening supporting strong SE winds. Also strong easterly winds will continue over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf through Tuesday. Seas will build to 8 ft over the southeast Gulf at times due to the stronger winds. On Tuesday night, a cold front is expected to reach the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Latest global model runs continue to indicate that this front will weaken fairly quickly. However, the upper trough supporting the front will likely trigger showers and thunderstorms that will traverse the northern gulf from west to east starting Tuesday and lasting through at least Wednesday. This front will help to weaken the ridging north of the Gulf mid week which will result in winds becoming mainly gentle to moderate across the Gulf basin Wednesday through Thursday with seas of 3 to 5 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region and lower pressures over south America will continue to support fresh to strong northeasterly winds over the majority of the Caribbean basin, including through the Atlantic passages through Wednesday. Nocturnal enhancements of the trades north of the Colombia coast will result in near gale- force winds within about 90 nm of the Colombia coast each night and through the mornings through at least Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Seas will build to 12 ft with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia, and up to 10 ft over the longer fetches of strong winds over the remainder of the Caribbean. Latest model guidance confirms the lesser chance of gale winds going into tonight compared to recent nights, with raw GFS indicating peak sustained winds a couple of knots shy of a gale. These slightly weaker winds comparatively to previous days appear to be due to the erosion of the eastern portion of the strong ridge to the north, as a cold front passes across the central Atlantic. A large swell event over the western Atlantic will continue to propagate through the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola, and across the tropical Atlantic zones the remainder of this weekend. By the middle of next week the ridge to the north will weaken further as a cold front crosses the southern United States. This will result in an additional slight decrease in trades over the Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The pressure gradient between low pressure over the central Atlantic and strong high pressure over the northeast Atlantic continues to support fresh to strong northeasterly winds over the southeastern half of the Atlantic forecast zones, southeast of a line from 27N65W to 25N80W based on the latest scatterometer data. Seas of 8 to 14 ft are covering the Atlantic forecast waters south of about 28N and east of the Bahamas. The fresh to strong NE-E winds and combined seas are expected to gradually become more confined to the southern zones through Sunday as the low pressure dissipates. High pressure will then dominate the region through early next week. A cold front is forecast by global models to clip the northern zones the middle of next week which may help build seas over 8 ft mainly north of 30N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.