000 AGXX40 KNHC 140712 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 212 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters producing moderate to fresh winds over the majority of the basin with seas generally between 4 and 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the SE waters and the Straits of Florida, with seas to 8 ft based on an altimeter pass. These marine conditions are forecast to persist over the next couple of days. A thermal trough will develop during the evening hours over the Yucatan Peninsula before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds will accompany this through. Marine guidance suggests that the next cold front will reach the coast of Texas late Tuesday, then stall and lift north while dissipating. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected ahead of the frontal boundary that could affect the far NW Gulf. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region combined with the Colombian/Panamaniam low will continue to support fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Caribbean Sea, including through the Atlantic passages. Based on scatterometer data, the strongest winds are near the coast of Colombia, where minimal gale force winds and building seas of 12-13 ft are expected early this morning. On Sunday, winds will slightly diminish across the basin, as a low pressure system moves eastward north of the area. Then, fresh to strong winds will persist across much of the basin through Wednesday, with the strongest winds across the south-central Caribbean. A swell event over the western Atlantic will continue to propagate through the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola, and across the Tropical N Atlantic zones the next few days. Seas are forecast to build to 11 ft across the Mona and Anegada Passages today and tonight. Seas will subside to 8-9 ft on Sunday, and to 7-8 ft on Sunday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong winds across the forecast waters south of 27N, with seas of 10-14 ft in NE swell E of the Bahamas. Seas of 8-10 ft also in NE swell dominate the waters N of 27N E of 77W. Seas will gradually subside below 12 ft late today, and to 8-9 ft across the waters S of 24N on Sunday. Seas of 8 ft will become confined to south of 22N on Monday. The aerial extent of the fresh to strong winds will decrease late today into Sunday as a low pressure system moves eastward just north of the forecast area. At that time, NE-E winds in the 20-25 kt range will affect the waters S of 22N-23N. Another high pressure center, behind the exiting low pressure system, will extend a ridge across the forecast waters late Sunday through Wednesday. Under this weather pattern, expect mainly gentle to moderate NE-E winds N of 24N and moderate to fresh NE-E winds S of 24N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.