000 AGXX40 KNHC 130729 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 229 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. Under the influence of this system, moderate to fresh E-SE winds and seas in the 4-7 ft range are forecast through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida with seas building to 7-8 ft through at least this weekend. A thermal trough will develop during the evening hours over the Yucatan Peninsula before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds will accompany this through. Marine guidance suggests that the next cold front will reach the far NW Gulf Tuesday night with a band of showers and thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region and lower pressures over south America will continue to support fresh to strong northeasterly winds over the majority of the Caribbean basin through the forecast period. Nocturnal enhancements of the trades north of the Colombia coast will result in minimal gale-force winds at night, particularly between 0600 UTC and 1200 UTC through tonight. Seas will build to 13-14 ft with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are also observed across the Windward Passage and downstream to the north coast of Jamaica with seas up to 10 ft based on an altimeter pass. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through Sunday morning. A large swell event over the western Atlantic will continue to propagate through the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola, and across the tropical Atlantic zones the next few days. Early next week, the ridge will weaken slightly which will result in the trades relaxing somewhat over the Caribbean basin Monday through Wednesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The pressure gradient between low pressure over the central Atlantic and strong high pressure over the northeast Atlantic supports fresh to strong northeasterly winds over the southeastern half of the Atlantic forecast zones. The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE winds between 60W-67W and south of 23N W of 70W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are expected to persist mainly south of 27N through early Saturday. A large swell event is also affecting the SW N Atlantic waters building seas up to 14-16 ft near 65W accoring to an altimeter pass and buoy observations. This swell event will continue to propagate across the forecast waters through Saturday with seas of 12 ft or greater across the E and SE waters. Then, seas will gradually subside below 12 ft by late Saturday into Sunday. Over the next few days the low will gradually weaken which will allow winds and seas to slowly diminish. By early next week fresh to strong winds and 8 ft seas will become confined to south of 22N-23N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.