000 AGXX40 KNHC 121927 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 227 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A persistent east to west ridge axis has setup north of the northern Gulf coast and will persist over the region through much of the forecast period. Expect mainly fresh southeasterly winds to prevail with locally strong winds over the southeastern Gulf and also nocturnally associated with a thermal trough west of the Yucatan. Seas of 4 to 6 will persist over the open waters of the gulf basin, except 8 to 9 ft north of the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba, including the Florida Straits, through this weekend. Mid week, global models are forecasting a cold front to enter the northwestern Gulf with showers and thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region and lower pressures over south America will continue to support fresh to strong northeasterly winds over the majority of the Caribbean basin through the forecast period. Nocturnal enhancements of the trades north of the Colombia coast will result in Gale-force winds the next three nights. Seas will max near 15 ft each night in the area of the gale. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will be predominant in areas of strong winds elsewhere over the Caribbean. A large swell event over the western Atlantic will send a northerly swell through the Caribbean passages, over portions of the north central and northeast Caribbean, and our tropical Atlantic zones the next few days. Early next week, the ridge will weaken slightly which will result in the trades relaxing somewhat over the Caribbean basin Monday through Wednesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The pressure gradient between low pressure over the central Atlantic and strong high pressure over the northeast Atlantic supports strong northeasterly winds over the southeastern half of our Atlantic zones. A large swell event is also underway at those locations with seas of 8 to 16 ft common over the open forecast waters and even higher to the east of our zones. Over the next few days the low will gradually weaken which will allow winds and seas to slowly decrease. By early next week fresh to strong winds and 8 ft seas will become confined to south of 22N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight into Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.