000 AGXX40 KNHC 101912 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 212 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Strong surface ridge continues from NW Atlc SW to central Gulf today and continues to yield strong ENE flow through the Straits of FL, and also strong sly flow across Texas and SW LA coastal waters ahead of Great Plains low. 42019 is presently showing 9 ft and has been running 2-4 ft higher than WW3 and 2 ft above ECWave. 11Z altimeter data also showed 8-9 ft seas along 84W across the Straits which was also 2-4 ft above wave guidance, and have adjusted up to reflect in the short term. This ridge will dominate the basin throughout the upcoming week, while gradually becoming more NE to SW aligned and eventually allowing for fresh to strong E to SE flow across the entire basin by Fri. An inverted trough will develop during the late afternoons over the Yucatan Peninsula, then move WNW offshore during the evenings and continue NW during the overnight hours eventually dissipating over the SW gulf waters during the late mornings. Expect a fresh to locally strong ne-e-se wind shift along this trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Cold front has stalled across wrn portions of basin overnight, reaching Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, and now moving very slowly SE from Mona Psg across W Puerto Rico. Strong to gale force NE wind behind front have diminished slightly in lee of Cuba, and through and downstream of Windward Psg, and gale warnings have been allowed to expire. Flow is expected to strengthen just offshore of SE Hispaniola and through Mona Psg this afternoon and evening, with gales occurring briefly this evening Dom Rep waters. Morning obs and recent altimeter data show WW3 woefully flow across and downstream of these hot wind zones, with ECWave generally 1-2 ft low in the highest areas. Max seas downwind of Cuba likely 13-14 ft this morning, while peak seas well downwind of Windward Psg suggested 16 ft by altimeter data. Strong surface ridge behind the front will maintain strong winds across most of these hot areas throughout the week, with nocturnal gales suggested most nights by GFS, albeit possibly only 3-6 hrs. These winds will gradually veer through the week as mid Atlc trough shifts slightly Ewd and allows front to move SE across the Ern Carib, reaching nrn Windwards by Fri. Long NE fetch will maintain seas 10-12 ft and potentially higher SW central portions, while extended NE fetch across NW semicircle of central Atlc low will continue to generate NE fetch across Atlc and through the Carib passages. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Cold front across SE waters stalled briefly across Mona Psg this morning but is now moving slowly SE and across Puerto Rico. Strong surface ridge behind front and centered along eastern seaboard is producing very strong NE winds S of 24N and NW of front, across Turks and Caicos and through the Windward Psg last night and now N of Hispaniola and PR and shortly through the Mona Psg. NE winds SE of Hispaniola and downwind of Mona Psg expected to reach gale force briefly this evening. WW3 has been a few ft low across much of the area of strong winds behind front, and slow with progression of high seas shifting S and SE, while ECWave appears to identify areas of highest seas and only 1 ft low per recent obs and morning altimeter data. Highest seas currently within about 300 nm NW of front and running 12-14 ft in mixed NW to NNE swell. Models in reasonable agreement with progression of the front and developing sfc low along front near 59-60W next few days but have followed a bit more closely the ECMWF, particularly with seas. Gales will prevail across a rather large area NW of the low for the next 48 hr at least and generate large NE swell aimed at much of SE half of area. Seas likely to not fall below 12 ft across waters N of PR through Saturday. As front shifts slowly SE throughout the week, winds across the area will slowly veer. However with ridge remaining largely intact, strong pres gradient will persist the entire week across the SE half of Bahamas and these semi-protected seas will remain very rough all week along. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning today. .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... Gale Warning tonight. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.