000 AGXX40 KNHC 100629 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. Strong Ene winds across the se gulf waters will gradually diminish to a fresh breeze late this afternoon, but combined seas to 8 ft will continue across the Fl Straits as the e winds buck the gulf stream. Still expect the pres gradient to tighten again late in the week with fresh to locally strong e winds beginning across the Fl Straits early Fri, and spreading w to near 24N88W late Sat night. Remnants of a front, analyzed as a surface trough, will extend from extreme se Tx to the western Bay of Campeche today, and then gradually lose amplitude this week. An inverted trough will develop during the late afternoons over the Yucatan Peninsula, then move wnw offshore during the evenings and continue nw during the overnight hours eventually dissipating over the sw gulf waters during the late mornings. Expect a fresh to locally strong ne-e-se wind shift along this trough. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow forecast across the nw gulf today, then mostly moderate return flow expected the remainder of the week, except increasing to a fresh breeze during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. The southern segment of a stationary front extending sw from the Mona Passage to se Nicaragua will soon begin to drift nw and gradually weaken to a shear axis later this week accompanied by showers. The eastern segment of this stationary front will move e again tonight as a weak cold front which will pass through the Leewards on Wed, and continue se eventually washing out along 14- 15N late in the week. Strong to near gale force ne winds are observed w of 69W with an embedded swath of minimal gale force winds, and seas 8 to 13 ft expected to continue downstream of the Windward Passage to just se of Jamaica through mid morning today. The pressure gradient will begin to relax during the middle of the week with the strong winds diminishing to a fresh breeze over the nw Caribbean, but still expect strong ne flow across the central Caribbean through late in the week when the pressure gradient will tighten again over the nw caribbean with strong ne-e winds developing to the lee of Cuba. However, nocturnal minimal gale conditions forecast along the nw coast of Colombia tonight and again on Wed night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A cold front extending sw from 31N55W to the Mona Passage will continue e today with a frontal wave low developing along the front near 27N55W. The low will generally move se this week dragging the southern segment of the front e as a weak cold front through the Leewards, with the front eventually weakening to an e to w shear axis across the tropical s of the area along 14-15N as the low shifts se of the area on Thu night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will continue within about 720 nm w of the front today, with maximum seas of 13 ft to the e of the southern Bahamas. Minimal gale force ne flow will develop late this morning within this discussion area, but to the e of the offshore zones, generally to the n of 28N within 270 nm w of the front, and persist into the late night hours tonight before diminishing below gale force. Expect strong to near conditions e of a line from Bermuda to the n-central coast of cuba on Wed through Thu, and e of line from Bermuda to the Cay Sal Bank on Thu night through Sat as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning early today into today. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... Gale Warning early today into today. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Gale Warning early today. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning early today. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning early today into today. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Gale Warning early today into today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.