000 AGXX40 KNHC 091953 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 253 PM EST MON JAN 9 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure in the wake of the previous strong cold front is present over the the area. An Ascat pass from 1544Z this morning showed a swath of northeast fresh to strong winds in the far southeast gulf and Straits of Fl. Both buoy and oil platform observations in the central and western gulf show east to southeast moderate to fresh winds there. Combined waveheights are in the 4-6 ft range s of a line from Corpus Christi Tx to just south of Louisiana to Tampa Fl, with the exception of higher seas in the far southeast gulf where seas are in the 8-11 ft range. Seas have lowered to 2-4 ft north of this same line. An altimeter pass from this morning confirmed the waveheights over the western part of the central gulf. The 8-11 ft seas will subside to 6-8 ft on Tuesday, and to 6-7 ft Tuesday night. The strong high pressure will shift eastward through Wednesday, and re-orient itself as an east to west ridge north of the area by Friday. The fresh to strong northeast winds across the far southeast waters will become east winds on Tuesday and continue into Friday while fresh to locally strong southeast winds over the western gulf weaken slightly on Wednesday. East to southeast moderate to fresh winds will remain over the central gulf through Fri. These winds increase to at times strong Friday night into Saturday in the eastern portion the central gulf south of about 26N. Strong northeast to east nocturnal winds are expected along the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the evening beginning on Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The cold front is extends from south-central Hispaniola southwest to 16N76W, and to just east of far northeastern Nicaragua as of 18Z. Near gale to gale force northeast winds are occurring north of 15N behind the front to near 80W. A 60 nm wide line of the gale force winds is across zone AMZ021 from 18N75W to 15N78W. Seas associated with these winds are in the 9- 13 ft range. An Ascat pass from 1406Z this morning confirmed the gale force winds in zone AMZ015 including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Northeast winds elsewhere west of the front are in the strong range west to near 86W as seen in the 1546Z Ascat pass. Seas with these winds are in the 8-11 ft range. The cold front is forecast to slow down its progress as it reaches from near from the Dominican Republic to northeast Nicaragua tonight...then become stationary and weaken from the Mona Passage to the central portion of Nicaragua through Thursday night. The near gale to gale northeast winds will diminish to 25-30 kt in zone AMZ021 tonight, but continue in zone AMZ015 through Tuesday before diminishing to 25-30 kt Tuesday night and to 20-25 kt on Wednesday and remain at that range through the period. Northeast to east trades elsewhere west of the front south of 15N also remain in the strong range, with the exception of the far central Caribbean in zone GMZ031 where winds there will be strong to near gale range with gale force winds expected within 60-90 nm of the coast of Colombia late on night beginning Tuesday and through Saturday. Strong northeast winds will funnel in through all passages during the period. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trades are expected over the tropical North Atlantic waters through tonight with seas of 5-7 ft, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft in the northwest portion. Changes there will come in the way of a large northwest sell train that will begin to impact the northern tropical North Atlantic on Tuesday through Wednesday night, and continue to propagate southward reaching the central tropical North Atlantic through Saturday. Resultant seas will be in the in 8-14 ft range, with the highest of these seas confined to the far northern portion of those zones. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The strong cold front of the past few days is analyzed along a position from 23N65W southwest to east-central Hispaniola as of 18Z. Strong high pressure is building southeastward in the wake of the front. The Ascat pass from 1404Z this morning revealed quite an impressive area of strong to gale force north-northeast winds behind the front south of 25N. The OFFNT3 forecast was updated this morning to reflect these winds. Several ship observations from this morning confirmed the gale force winds. Both buoy and ship observations from throughout the day indicate seas in the 10-14 ft between the front and the Bahamas. The front will begin to weaken and slow down as it moves through the far southeast waters of the basin, and the far northwest portion of the tropical North Atlantic Tuesday through Wednesday. The strong to gale force winds will diminish on Tuesday as the front slows down and moves over the far northwest of the Tropical North Atlc on Tuesday. Winds and seas will diminish and subside from the northwest to southeast beginning tonight. By Thursday, a swath of strong northeast winds is forecast to be situated to the southeast of a line from 31N66W to 26N73W to 26N75W to the Straits of FL with seas of 9-14 ft east of the the Bahamas in a tight pressure gradient between the eastward shifting high pressure and broad eastern Atlantic weak low pressure that moves westward to the central Atlantic. These conditions surge further west to well into the Straits of Fl and southeast Gulf of Mexico Friday through Saturday night with seas of 11-14 ft east of the Bahamas, and seas of 8-12 ft northeast of the Bahamas. Seas of 8-11 ft in the Straits of Fl continue through the period. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning through Tue. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... Gale Warning through tonight. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... .Gale Warning east of 77W through tonight. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W .Gale Warning through Tue. morning. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH .Gale Warning behind the front for rest of this afternoon, and Gale Warning tonight into Tue. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.