000 AGXX40 KNHC 090626 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 126 AM EST MON JAN 9 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. Strong ne winds across the se gulf waters will gradually clock to the ene through early Tue, with the last of these strong winds diminishing to a fresh breeze along the n coast of Cuba on Tue night. By then a ridge axis will extend sw from the Fl Big Bend to near Tampico Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow expected to the n of this ridge on Tue with guidance hinting at small embedded swaths of brief strong s winds. The gradient will relax some on Wed with moderate southerly return flow expected n of the ridge, except increasing to a fresh breeze across the nw waters during the overnight hours the remainder of the period. An inverted trough will begin to develop during the late afternoons over the Yucatan Peninsula, then move wnw offshore during the evenings and continue during the overnight hours eventually dissipating over the sw waters during the late mornings. Expect a moderate to fresh ne-e-se wind shift along this trough tonight, and a fresh to locally strong wind shift on Wed, Thu and Fri evenings. A weak cold front will move off the Tx coast on Sat evening, stall and drift back inland by Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A cold front extending sw from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras will reach from the Dominican Republic to extreme ne Nicaragua tonight, then stall and meander from the Mona Passage to Jamaica to ne Nicaragua on Tue. The western portion front will weaken to a shear axis meandering from near Puerto Rico to Nicaragua on Wed and Thu enhancing showers near the broad boundary. The eastern portion of the front will continue e as a weak cold front through the Leewards as a low pressure develops well n of the area later in the week and shifts s to the near 15N55W late in the week. Strong to near gale force ne winds are expected to spread e across the Caribbean covering the waters to the w of 69W through tonight, with a narrow band of minimal gale force winds, and seas 8 to 13 ft developing downstream of the Windward Passage just to the east of Jamaica. The pressure gradient will continue to relax during the middle of the week with the strong winds diminishing to a fresh breeze over the nw Caribbean, but still expect strong ne flow across the central Caribbean into the weekend with nocturnal near gale conditions along the nw coast of Colombia. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A cold front extending sw from 31N62W to the Windward Passage will continue e and nearly stall from 31N55W to the Mona Passage tonight. A frontal wave low will develop along the front near 27N57W on Tue dragging the southern segment of the front e through the Leewards during the middle of the week with the front weakening to an e to w shear axis across the tropical waters along 15N on Thu as the low shifts s to near 22N55W. The low is expected to continue moving s to near 19N55W on Fri night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will continue within about 420 nm w of the front today, with maximum seas of 15 ft to the ne of the Bahamas. These strong to near gale conditions will expand w to about 600 nm w of the front tonight as the pressure gradient continues to strengthen. Minimal gale force ne flow will develop within this discussion area, but to the e of the offshore zones, generally to the n of 28N within 300 nm w of the front, on Tue into Tue evening. Expect strong to near conditions e of a line from Bermuda to the n-central coast of cuba on Thu, and e of line from Bermuda to the Cay Sal Bank on Fri as the low tracks s. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning tonight. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... Gale Warning tonight. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.