000 AGXX40 KNHC 080621 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. Gale force winds across the far sw waters will end at sunrise this morning. Strong to near gale force northerly winds observed elsewhere e of 92W, and s of 23N w of 92W will gradually diminish today. A gale warning for frequent gusts to gale force across the coastal waters of Al and Fl will diminish from the w this morning, with these gusty conditions ending by mid morning along w central Fl coast. Still expect the last of the strong winds to diminish to a fresh breeze across the Fl Straits on Tue night as a ridge sets up from the Fl Big Bend to Tampico Mexico. Moderate southerly return flow is expected n of the ridge except increasing to a fresh breeze across the nw waters during the overnight hours the remainder of the period. Best guess is the next front will move off the Tx coast on Sat evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. Moderate to fresh trades forecast across the area e of 80W, except for strong to near gale force winds and seas to 11 ft developing across the sw Caribbean today. A strong cold front extending from 20N80W to Belize will reach from the Windward Passage to Honduras this evening, and stall and gradually dissipate from the Mona Passage to Nicaragua through the middle of next week. Strong to near gale force ne winds will spread e across the Caribbean w of 69W through Mon night. By then the gradient will have relaxed some supporting strong ne flow, except for a narrow band of near gale force winds, and seas 8 to 13 ft in and downstream of the Windward Passage to near 14N80W. It is possible that a gale warning may have to be issued for frequent gusts to gale force along this band on Mon. The pressure gradient will continue to relax during the middle of the week, but still expect strong ne across the central Caribbean into next weekend. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A strong cold front extending from 31N70W to nw Cuba will reach Bermuda to ne Cuba late this afternoon, extend from 31N57W to Hispaniola on Mon, then stall and begin to lose identity from 29N55W on Tue. Strong southerly winds will continue to the n of29N just ahead of the front through this evening with these conditions shifting n of 31N tonight. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will continue within about 660 nm w of the front through Mon night, with frequent gusts to gale force n of the Bahamas today. Winds and seas will diminish and subside from the nw to se beginning tonight, but persist across the ne and s-central portions through at least the middle of the week. Still expect seas to 14 ft to reach the eastern Bahamas. A surface low in the middle Atlantic will continue to shift w early this week resulting in a tightening pressure gradient w of the front. May see gale force winds w of the front near 30N56W on Tue night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force through late morning. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning early today. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.