000 AGXX40 KNHC 071943 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 243 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The strong cold front is blasting through the area this afternoon. As of 18Z this afternoon, the cold front is along a position from Naples FL southwest to inland the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula, and continues to the far southeast sector of the eastern Bay of Campeche. A large and very strong area of high pressure is following in behind the front, with an unusually mega 1044 mb high center analyzed over far northern Mexico near the Texas border. Latest and current buoy and oil platform observations show northerly winds of 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt over a good portion of the north central and western gulf waters. Stronger gale force winds of 35-45 kt are noted in the southwest gulf section as depicted in the 1628Z Ascat pass. Some brief gusts to storm force may be possible with these winds. Combined waveheights are quite large, in the range of 9-15 ft south of 28N and west of 87W, with the exception of the higher range of 12-18 ft in the southwest gulf zone GMZ023. Combined seas elsewhere west of the front are in the 8-11 ft range, and 3-5 ft southeast of the front. Satellite-derived lightning density data, and NWS radar imagery continues to indicate frequent lightning within scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along, and within 90-120 nm southeast of the front. This activity is likely to contain gusty winds in excess of 30 kt as it rapidly translates southeastward towards the far southeast gulf waters and Straits of Florida this afternoon and evening. The front is on track to reach the far southeast gulf and Straits of Florida this evening, and move southeast of the gulf tonight. The strong high pressure area will shift eastward through early next while slowly weakening. The tight pressure gradient between the high and the front will gradually relax through Sunday. The northerly gale force winds will then diminish to less than gale force in the north central gulf and northeast gulf tonight, but remain at gale force in the far southwest gulf south of 20N and west of 96W through till about 12Z on Sunday. The winds below gale force will diminish to a fresh east breeze across the far southeast gulf and Straits of Fl late on Tue. The aforementioned combined waveheights will slowly subside through Sunday night. The 12-18 ft seas in the southwest gulf will subside to 10-13 ft on Sunday, to 6-9 ft Sunday night and to 5-7 ft on Monday. Seas remain high, in the range of 8-12 ft in the eastern gulf portion on Sunday night before subsiding slightly on Monday, to 6-9 ft Tuesday and to 5-7 ft Tuesday night. Once the high pressure shifts to the east of Fl early next week, it will extend a ridge from northeast Fl southwest to near Tampico Mexico by late on Tuesday. This feature will control the wind flow pattern throughout into Thursday providing a generally moderate to fresh east-southeast wind flow throughout outside the previously described southeast gulf and Straits of Fl. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence... except average confidence with winds behind the front in the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast across the area except for strong to near gale force winds and seas to 11 ft within 270 nm of the nw coast of Colombia through Sun. A strong cold front, presently pushing southeastward across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, will enter the Yucatan Channel within the next few hours followed by strong to near gale force north- northeast winds, and combined seas rapidly building to 8-12 ft. These conditions will spread southeastward across the NW Caribbean on tonight. The cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to Honduras on Sun evening, and stall roughly from the Dominican Republic to extreme ne Nicaragua Monday night and Tuesday, with fresh to strong northeast winds w of 67W, except for a narrow band of near gale force winds and seas 9-13 ft in and downstream of the Windward Passage. The near gale force winds are expected to last through late Tuesday night. Fresh northeast to east trades with seas of 7-10 ft expected across the tropical waters through Sunday, then moderate to fresh trades through Monday night, and weaker mainly light northeast to east trades through Thursday night. The seas of 7-10 ft are forecast to subside to 6-8 ft on Sunday, then 5-7 ft Monday through Thursday night. The leading edge of an extensive area of large northwest swell will begin to impact the northern tropical North Atlantic on Tuesday, and continue to propagate southward reaching the central tropical North Atlantic on Thursday. Resultant seas will be in the in 8-12 ft range. Trades across the Caribbean become more northeast to east in direction through Thursday as Atlantic high pressure slides eastward. This will also allow for the pressure gradient to slacken leading to diminishing wind speeds throughout the area. The exception will be in the Windward Passage where strong northeast winds will be present Wednesday through Thursday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A strong cold front has moved off the southeast U.S. coast, and as of 18Z extends along a position from near 31N77W southwest to inland Fl near West Palm Beach. Strong high pressure is building southeastward in the wake of the front. The front is accompanied and preceded by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with frequent lightning strikes as noted in the satellite-derived lightning density data. The front will quickly reach from near from 31N74W to the Bahama Channel this evening, from Bermuda to northeast Cuba Sunday morning, from 31N56W to Hispaniola on Mon, then begin to lose identity on Tue. Pre-frontal strong to near force southerly winds to the north of the Bahamas have increased to minimal gale force to the north of 30N just ahead of the front as observed in the 1444Z Ascat pass. Expect the strong to near gale force southerly flow to lift north of 31N on Sunday afternoon. Strong to near gale force nw to n winds will follow the front, with frequent gusts to gale force. Winds and seas will diminish and subside from the northwest to southeast beginning on Sun night, but persist across the northeast and south-central gulf portions through Wed night with seas to 14 ft reaching the Bahamas. By Thursday, a swath of strong northeast winds is forecast to be situated to the southeast of a line from 31N66W to 26N73W to near 22N78W with seas of 9-14 ft east of the the Bahamas in a tight pressure gradient between the eastward shifting high pressure and broad eastern Atlantic weak low pressure that moves westward to the central Atlantic. Seas of 10-14 ft are expected between the Bahamas and Fl where the gulfstream current is located through late Sunday night before subsiding to 8-10 ft Monday, and to 6-8 ft Monday night and Tuesday and to lower ranges of 5-6 ft Wednesday through Thursday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN MARINE SANCTUARY. Gale Warning for frequent gusts through this afternoon. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... Gale Warning for frequent gusts through this afternoon. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning through this afternoon. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning through tonight. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Gale Warning west of 93W through this afternoon. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning tonight. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.