000 AGXX40 KNHC 050706 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A nearly stationary cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to the south-central gulf. Moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front will quickly diminish early this morning as high pressure shifts east across the NE gulf. The next cold front will move into the northern gulf Thursday night. Fresh northeast winds north of the front will increase to widespread strong northerly winds Friday. The front will extend from the Florida big bend to Bay of Campeche Saturday morning, with gale conditions forecast west of the front, roughly south of 24N and west of 91W, and persist into Saturday night. The strong front will push south of the basin Saturday night. Winds and seas will diminish and subside throughout Sun, but expect near gale winds in the Florida Straits through Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. Marine conditions have improved over the region as the gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia relaxes. Scatterometer data shows a small area of fresh E-NE winds near the coast of Colombia, and gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. A weakening cold front will stall and dissipate near Yucatan Channel today. The pressure gradient north of the area will strengthen again this weekend as strong high pressure builds behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Locally strong trades will build seas to 8 ft in tropical waters east of the Windward Islands tonight through Saturday night. A stronger cold front will move into the Yucatan Basin Saturday night, extend from the Windward Passage to near Honduras by Sunday night, with strong northeast winds and building seas to 11 ft expected west of the front. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A cold front extending from Bermuda across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida will stall and weaken by later today. Models show surface low development over NE Florida Thursday. A stronger cold front will move off the southeast coast Saturday, extend from 31N74W to Straits of Florida Saturday night and from 31N69W to central Cuba Sunday. Near gale conditions will follow this front and may increase to minimal gale east of the Bahamas and west of the front from Sunday night through Monday night. The high winds associated with the front will spawn large seas to 10-16 ft covering a large portion of the forecast area east of the Bahamas Sunday through Tuesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night into Sat. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night into Sat night. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.