000 AGXX40 KNHC 041938 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 238 PM EST WED JAN 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A cold front extends from central Florida southwest to the south-central Gulf to the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is ahead of the front off the Yucatan Peninsula west coast. A second surface trough is near 86W south of 24N. This front will extend from the Straits of Florida to north of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning. At the same time, a reinforcing cold front moving across the northwest and north-central Gulf will pass over northern Florida into Atlc waters N of 30N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the reinforcing front will quickly diminish tonight as weak high pressure shifts east across the northern gulf. A stronger cold front will move into north-northwest Gulf waters early Friday morning. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico with fresh to strong northeast winds west of the boundary. On Saturday morning, the front will extend from northeast Florida Peninsula to the central basin to the western Bay of Campeche with strong to near gale force winds behind it, except off the coast of Mexico north of Tampico where gale force winds will develop. Near gale to gale conditions will shift to the Bay of Campeche where it will persist through early Sunday morning at the same time the front push southeast of the area. Winds and seas will diminish and subside throughout Sun, but expect strong to near gale winds across the Florida Straits beyond Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. The pressure gradient across the region will relax tonight as surface high pressure over the central Atlantic continue to move east and a cold front moves north of the area. This will improve the overall marine conditions through early Friday morning, including in the south-central Caribbean. The pressure gradient north of the area will strengthen again this weekend, thus supporting strong to near gale force winds across the central basin being the strongest winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas are expected to build from 8 to 11 ft through Sunday. Locally fresh to strong trades in the tropical Atlantic will build seas to 7-8 ft east of the Windward Saturday and Sunday. A strong cold front pushing through the Yucatan Channel early Sunday morning will usher in north strong to near gale force winds across the northwest Caribbean beyond Sunday with building seas to 11 ft. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A developing low pressure system well north of the area trails a cold front into the northwest waters from 30N77W to near Melbourne, Florida. Latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong south to southwest winds north of 30N ahead of the front to 71W with seas to 8 ft. The cold front will reach from 31N to the east-central Florida near 27N80W tonight, then will stall Thu morning from 31N to the Straits of Florida. A reinforcing cold front will merge with the stationary front Thu night then will gradually weaken over the NE forecast waters through Sat morning. A stronger cold front moving off the southeast U.S. coast Sat morning will extend from 31N78W to Melbourne, Florida Sat afternoon with gale force winds up to 40 kt west of the boundary. Gale to near gale winds will continue west of the front through Sun. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sun. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Ramos. National Hurricane Center.