000 AGXX40 KNHC 040731 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 231 AM EST WED JAN 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A weak stationary front extends from northern Florida to the west-central gulf. Reinforcing cold air moving into the northwest gulf will catch up with the weak stationary front later today, with the merged front extending from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight. Moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front will quickly diminish tonight as high pressure shifts east across the northern gulf. The next cold front will move into the northern gulf Thursday night. Fresh northeast winds north of the front will increase to a strong breeze Friday. The front will extend from the Florida big bend to Bay of Campeche Saturday morning, with gale conditions forecast over the NE gulf just west of the front, and near the coast of Mexico south of 24N, where they will persist through Saturday night. The eastern part of the front will push out of the basin Saturday night. Winds and seas will diminish and subside throughout Sun, but expect near gale winds across the Florida Straits through Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. Marine conditions are improving across the region as the pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia relaxes. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will persist in the south-central Caribbean today, then diminish tonight. The pressure gradient north of the area will strengthen again this weekend. Locally strong trades will build seas to 7-8 ft in tropical waters east of the Windwards Thursday night through Saturday night. A weakening cold front will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel Wednesday night and Thursday. A stronger cold front will move into the Yucatan Basin Saturday night, and extend from the Windward Passage to near Honduras by Sunday night, with strong northerly winds and building seas to 11 ft expected west of the front. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A developing low pressure system well north of the area trails a frontal boundary into the far northwest waters near Jacksonville. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong south to southwest winds north of 28N ahead of the front. The cold front will extend from Bermuda across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida late tonight, then stall and weaken Thursday. Models show surface low development over NE Florida Thursday. As the low tracks northeast of the U.S. east coast, it will drag a cold front across northwest waters Friday, and extend from 31N72W to southern Florida. A much stronger cold front will move off the southeast coast Saturday, to extend from 31N74W to Straits of Florida Saturday night and from 31N69W to central Cuba Sunday. Near gale conditions will follow this front and may increase to minimal gale east of the Bahamas within about 300 nm west of the front on Sunday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sun. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sat night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.