000 AGXX40 KNHC 031735 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A cold front extends sw from the Fl Panhandle to the central gulf and then becomes nearly stationary to the sw gulf waters. Reinforcing high pressure from the nw this evening will accelerate the front southeastward through the Fl Straits on wed evening. Moderate to locally fresh sw winds will preceded the front today over the far ne waters with a few TS. Moderate to fresh nw flow will develop tonight across the far nw waters, clock to the ne on Wed, and then quickly diminish as a surface high shifts e across the nw portion on Wed night. The high center will lose identity in a nw to se ridge setting up from sw LA to the Yucatan Channel on Thu. The ridge will quickly shift e allowing the next cold front to move off the Tx coast on Thu morning. Fresh ne winds expected w of the front on Thu night, increasing to a strong breeze Fri morning. The front will continue e reaching from the Fl big bend to the Bay of Campeche on Sat morning, with minimal gale conditions forecast over the ne waters just w of the front, and within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico to the s of 24N where they will persist through Sat night. The front will race se passing through the Straits of Fl on Sat night. Winds and seas will diminish and subside throughout Sun, but expect near gale winds across the Fl Straits through Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. The gradient between Atlc high pressure and persistent low pressure over northern Colombia will gradually relax over the next few days, then strengthen again during the upcoming weekend. Expect the normal nocturnal enhancement of strong winds along the nw coast of Colombia with seas building to a max of 11 ft. Locally strong trades will build seas to 8 ft across the tropical waters e of the Windwards on Thu night through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move slowly se through the Yucatan Channel on Wed night and lose identity over the nw Caribbean on Thu into Fri. A strong cold front will move across the Yucatan Basin on Sat night, reaching from the Windward Passage to Honduras on Sun night with strong n winds and seas to 11 ft everywhere w of the front. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A frontal trough continues to weaken along 22N to the e of the Bahamas. A pre frontal squall line will continue e today across the nw waters, generally to n of 29N w of 77W, where strong sw winds and seas to 8 ft are expected ahead of a cold front moving off the ne Fl coast tonight. The cold front will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to nw Cuba early Thu, then slower even stall briefly Thu night, then be reinforced late Fri reaching from 31N62W to e Cuba early Sat. By then a stronger front will move off the se U.S. coast reaching from 31N70W to nw Cuba early Sun, and from 31N55W to the Windward Passage late Sun night. Near gale conditions will initially follow this front and possibly increase to minimal gale force e of the Bahamas within about 300 nm w of the front on Sun night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sat night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sat night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.