000
AGXX40 KNHC 030720
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A weak cold front extending southwest from New Orleans to near
27N92W, then a trough to 23N96W. Scatterometer data shows moderate
to fresh south to southwest winds ahead of the front, with gentle
west to northwest winds west of the boundary. The front will move
slowly eastward across the NE gulf and remain weak into Wednesday,
with winds becoming northerly across most of the basin. The front
will stall from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on
Thursday, then dissipate Thursday night and Friday. Model guidance
shows a strong cold front moving into the NW gulf Saturday. Strong
high pressure building southward into Mexico behind the front will
produce very strong northerly winds west of 94W Saturday night.
Not enough agreement yet to boldly go with gale conditions in the
zone forecasts, but the trend is toward high winds Saturday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W
AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A small area of gale force winds was expected near the coast of
Colombia overnight, but scatterometer data at 0300 UTC shows winds
barely reaching 30 kt in this area, so will forego a continuation
of the gale warning at 0600 UTC. A large area of fresh to strong
trade winds is evident from ASCAT data in the central Caribbean,
and recent altimeter passes indicated max seas to 13 ft. Winds and
seas will slowly diminish in the forecast area through Thursday.
A weak cold front is expected to stall and dissipate near the
Yucatan Channel Thursday into Friday. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A ridge extends from 30N65W to central Florida. Scatterometer data
at 0300 UTC shows moderate to fresh south to southeast winds east
of Florida. The ridge will recede eastward through Wednesday, and
a weak cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move across northern
Florida, extend from 31N74W to Palm Beach Florida Wednesday night,
then become stationary from 31N70W across the northern Bahamas to
the Straits of Florida Thursday. Light winds will prevail across
most of the area Thursday afternoon through Friday night as the
front dissipates. Moderate return flow will set up across the NW
waters late Friday night.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.