000 AGXX40 KNHC 021727 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1227 PM EST MON JAN 2 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A ridge dissects the Gulf of Mexico from the Fl big bend to ne TX with fresh to locally strong return flow across the entire gulf ahead of a cold front moving off the TX coast by early this afternoon. Guidance is not as strong the past few runs, and now expect fresh to strong southerly winds e of the front this morning to only last through this afternoon will building briefly to 8 ft. These southerly winds will gradually diminish to 10-15 kt on Tue with the front continuing se and passing through the Straits of Fl on Wed evening. Post-frontal high pressure will gradually strengthen on wed and Thu resulting in fresh n to e winds across the nw gulf late Thu with winds clocking to the e on Thu night and into Fri with embedded patches of strong winds all ahead of the next cold front late Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. The gradient between Atlc high pressure and persistent low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting strong winds to near gale ne-e winds with 7-11 ft seas across the central Caribbean, with brief minimal gale winds expected again briefly tonight with seas building to 14 ft just downstream of the gale area. Locally strong trades will develop across the e Caribbean today. A small area of strong winds will develop very briefly across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A weakening cold front will move slowly se through the Yucatan Channel on Wed night and lose identity over the nw Caribbean on Thu into Fri. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A ridge extends from 31N70W to central Fl, and a frontal trough continues to weaken along 23N to the e of the Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong e winds expected s of the ridge, including across the Atlc approaches to the Windward Passage through tonight, then the gradient will relax across the tropics. By then strong southerly return flow will increase over the far nw waters ahead of a cold front moving off the ne Fl coast on Tue evening. The cold front will reach from 31N71W to the central Bahamas on Thu, and reach from Bermuda to the Windward Passage early Fri, with fresh to locally strong nw flow w of the front beginning late Thu night evening and continue through Fri night. Moderate southerly return will set up across the nw waters late Fri night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.