000 AGXX40 KNHC 020700 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EST MON JAN 2 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A ridge extends from central Florida to southern Texas with fresh to locally strong southerly return flow expected to persist south of a low pressure area tracking east across the gulf coast states through Tuesday night. A weak cold front trailing from the low pressure area will skirt the coastal zones, with a surface trough extending south from the front to around 26N. Expect widespread showers and a few thunderstorms in the northern gulf this evening through Tuesday morning as the trough sweeps east over the area. Southerly winds will diminish to 15-20 kt by this evening behind the trough across north-central waters. High pressure building over the southern states Wednesday will push a cold front into the northern Gulf Wednesday, which will extend from southern Florida to central Mexico Thursday. The front will stall and weaken across the southern gulf Friday. Models are fairly good agreement, except for the European forecast, which depicts a much weaker front that stalls across the central gulf Wednesday night, and lifts it north as a warm front Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The gradient between Atlantic high pressure and persistent low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting strong trade winds and 8-11 ft seas across the central Caribbean, with brief minimal gales expected tonight and again very briefly Mon night near the coast of Colombia, with seas building to 13-14 ft just downstream of the gale area. Locally strong trades will develop across the eastern Caribbean later today. Winds and seas will slowly subside across the forecast area Tuesday through Thursday. A weakening cold front is expected to stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel Thursday into Friday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A ridge extends from 31N65W to central Florida, and a weakening frontal boundary extends along 23N east of the Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong trades are occurring south of the ridge, including the Atlantic approaches to the Windward Passage. Little change is expected through Tuesday, when the gradient will relax somewhat across the tropics. Southwest winds will increase over the far NW waters ahead of a cold front moving off the Georgia coast Tuesday evening. The front will trail a surface trough across the waters north of 27N Wednesday and Thursday. A reinforcing cold front is expected to reach the northwest waters Thursday night, and extend from 31N70W across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Friday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today into tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.