000 AGXX40 KNHC 311849 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A high pressure ridge axis will extend across Florida and the eastern Gulf the next few days. This will support fresh to strong return flow across the basin through at least Monday. Seas to 8 ft will be possible where the stronger winds are occurring across the northern Gulf during this time. A weak cold front will cross the northern Gulf from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The front will weaken the ridging over the Gulf and there will also be a lack of a strong area of high pressure building behind this front. This will result in a weak pressure pattern and gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf for the middle of the week. A stronger cold front is expected to reach the northern Gulf on Thursday. Current model runs indicate fresh to strong northerly winds north of this front as it moves slowly southeastward toward the central Gulf through Friday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Strong high pressure is building from the eastern United States toward Bermuda through tonight. This will result in a tightening of the pressure gradient across the central Caribbean. Gale force winds will develop north of the Colombia coast between 73W and 76W tonight, then decreasing during the day Sunday, before pulsing back to gale Sunday night and then again on Monday night. Fresh to strong trades are forecast elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean during the Saturday night through Monday night time frame. During this same time period seas are forecast to peak near 15 ft where the gale is occurring, with a large area of 8 to 11 ft seas across the central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will relax somewhat by Tuesday as the high over the western Atlantic slides eastward and weakens. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A stationary front from 23N65W through the southern bahamas to eastern Cuba will dissipate through Sunday morning. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue south of 23N west of 65W through Monday, as high pressure builds across the western and central Atlantic. Northwest swell of 8 to 12 ft over the northwestern zones east of 75W will gradually subside and shift east through Sunday. Seas will remain above 8 ft east of the bahamas south of about 25N into early next week under a large fetch of 20 kt east to northeast trade winds. High pressure will dominate the remainder of the area early next week. A cold front is then forecast to brush the northern zones by mid week...reaching as far south as the northern Bahamas and south Florida by Thursday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Sun night. Gale Conditions Possible Mon morning and Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional inf