000 AGXX40 KNHC 301851 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 151 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A cold front continues to progress southward over the southeastern Gulf, while it begins to slow and weaken over the southwestern Gulf. Strong high pressure over Texas has built southward over interior Mexico and the western Gulf basin resulting in Gale force westerly winds from 22N to 26N west of about 96W. The strong high also supports strong north to northeast winds across the remainder of the basin north of the front. The high is moving quickly eastward, which will allow for a decrease in wind speeds over the western Gulf to below gale force later this afternoon. This eastward shift of the ridge will also cause the portion of the front over the western Gulf to dissipate, while the remainder of the front currently over the southeastern Gulf moves over the northwestern Caribbean. An altimeter pass earlier today showed seas up to 13 ft where the strongest winds were occurring. Therefore, adjusted the wave height forecast upward through this evening over the western half of the Gulf basin north of the front. The high will continue a fast track eastward the next two days, becoming centered over Bermuda by Saturday evening. This will bring about a rapid veering of the winds over the Gulf basin to southeasterly to south with strong southerly winds expected over the northwestern Gulf as early as daybreak Saturday. These strong winds will shift east to the north central Gulf by Saturday night then the northeastern Gulf on Sunday as the high continues to slide east over the Atlantic waters. On Monday, low pressure tracking across Texas to the Mississippi Valley will drag a cold front over the northern Gulf waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. A weak pressure pattern will prevail Tuesday through Wednesday in the wake of this front. Late next week models are forecasting a strong cold front to reach the northwestern Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A cold front is making its way to the Yucatan Channel this afternoon and will continue southward through tonight, extending from eastern Cuba to near Belize on Saturday. There, the front will stall out and then dissipate through Saturday night. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are expected north of this front. Also, as a prefrontal trough north of the central Caribbean slides eastward ahead of the approaching front, winds over the Windward Passage will increase to 20 to 25 kt. These winds will persist through Sunday night. High pressure over the Central Atlantic continues to support a tight pressure gradient over the central Caribbean resulting in fresh to locally strong northeast winds over the south central Caribbean. Strong high pressure to the north of the Gulf of Mexico will build quickly eastward through the weekend. This will result in a further tightening of the pressure gradient across the central Caribbean. Latest global model guidance is showing a high chance for gale force winds to develop north of the Colombia coast between 73W and 76W Saturday night, then decreasing during the day Sunday, before pulsing back to gale Sunday night and then again on Monday night. Fresh to strong trades are forecast elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean during the Saturday night through Monday night time frame. During this same time period seas are forecast to peak near 14 ft where the gale is occurring, with a large area of 8 to 11 ft seas across the central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will relax somewhat by Tuesday as the high over the western Atlantic slides eastward and weakens. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A cold front from around 30N70W to the Florida Straits will progress quickly east and southeastward through tonight. The northern portion will exit the forecast zones tonight, while the southern portion reaches from around 24N65W to 20N75W Saturday morning. This southern portion will stall out over this same area and dissipate through Saturday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue within a few hundred miles north of the front through this weekend and will continue to occur across the southern zones Sunday and Monday even after the front dissipates, as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected from the central Bahamas and north and northeastward over our zones through this evening. Seas will improve from west to east tonight into Saturday over the northwestern zones as winds diminish. High pressure will dominate the area early next week. A cold front is then forecast to brush the northern zones by mid week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.