000 AGXX40 KNHC 291818 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 118 PM EST THU DEC 29 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A fast moving cold front crossing the northwestern Gulf will reach from south Florida to Vera Cruz Friday morning, then exit the southeastern Gulf by Friday afternoon. Strong high pressure north of the front will support strong to gale force winds behind the front, with the sustained gale force winds west of 96W south of 24N starting late tonight and lasting through much of the day Friday. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected across the northwestern Gulf this afternoon through tonight. Seas will build to 11 ft across the northern Gulf in the northerly flow behind the front. Seas as high as 14 ft can be expected where the gale winds will occur over the western Gulf. The area of high pressure will slide quickly eastward this weekend which will result in a veering of the winds to the east to southeast Friday night into Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, fresh southeast winds will cover the majority of the Gulf basin with strong southerly winds over the northwestern Gulf. A disturbance is forecast to brush the northwestern Gulf Monday into Tuesday supporting showers and thunderstorms. Then by mid week another cold front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf coast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. High pressure northeast of the region will support a continuation of fresh to strong northeasterlies near the coast of Colombia the next couple of days. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Friday afternoon, then stall out and dissipate Friday night through Saturday from eastern Cuba to Belize. Strong northeasterly winds are forecast north of this frontal boundary. As the front dissipates through Saturday, high pressure passing north of the region will produce fresh to strong northeasterly winds over much of the central and eastern Caribbean from Friday night through Monday. The high will become centered over the central Atlantic by Tuesday which will allow for the stronger winds to once again become confined to the area north of Colombia. Over the Atlantic waters, large swell of 8 to 10 ft will continue to affect the waters east of the Leeward Islands through Friday, before the swell diminishes below 8 ft as the trades over the tropical Atlantic waters decrease slightly over the weekend and into the early parts of next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Strong return flow is developing today north of 30N ahead of a cold front over the southeastern United States. This cold front will reach our northwestern waters this evening, then reach from near 31N71W to south Florida Friday morning. Strong northerly winds are forecast behind this front through tonight. Winds greater than 20 kt will then become confined to within about 500 nm west of the front Friday into Saturday, and within a couple hundred nm east of the front north of 28N through Friday night, before this portion of the front exits the forecast zones. The overall wind field will build seas to 8 to 9 ft east of the front in mixed swell and 8 to 12 ft over our forecast zones west of the front, outside of the Bahamas. High pressure behind the front will build across Bermuda early next week which will support gentle to moderate winds over the northern zones and fresh to locally strong easterlies over the southern zones. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force today and tonight. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Fri. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Fri. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.