000 AGXX40 KNHC 280802 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 302 AM EST WED DEC 28 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence, then medium confidence this weekend. 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf off Panama City Florida. This is maintaining generally light to gentle breezes across the basin this morning, with 2 to 4 ft seas. Offshore platforms in the northwest Gulf are again showing fog, but only to 6 nm as a somewhat drier airmass prevails over the northwest Gulf. Dense fog remains a factor however over portions of the near coastal zones west of Mobile Bay, with visibilities as low as 1/2 nm. These conditions may persist through tonight. The fog will lift by early Thursday as a strong cold front moves into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front over the northwest Gulf through Thursday morning, with gusts to gale force likely. The front will reach from the Straits of Florida to the far southwest Gulf by early Friday. There is starting to be a little more coherence in model output regarding the likelihood of sustained gales along the coasts of Tamaulipas Thursday night, and off Veracruz Friday morning. The operational GFS is finally indicating this, and probabilities have increased in SREF guidance for the same areas at the same times. GFS ensemble guidance is also showing some indications of gales, but is likely still underdoing this given the strength of the high pressure and how cool/dry the airmass will be. Elsewhere, strong winds follow the front across the Gulf through Friday night, with seas 8 to 10 ft over much of the central and southern Gulf. Winds and seas diminish from north to south through early Saturday, just as fresh to strong southerly return flow develops over the northwest and north central Gulf Saturday and Sunday between the high pressure exiting to the east and another approaching frontal boundary. The crystal ball gets a little murky for Sunday, with some discrepancies among the major models regarding timing and exact impacts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central and southwest portions of the Caribbean with 8 to 11 ft seas, and near gale force winds off Colombia with seas to 12 ft. These winds and seas will diminish over the next couple of days as the high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts east. A cold front will move into the far northwest Caribbean Friday, eventually stalling from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras by Saturday, then dissipating through early next week. Strong winds will follow the front over the northwest Caribbean, and through the Windward Passage. In addition, high pressure building behind the front will support strong trade wind flow and building seas across most of the remainder of the Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic waters west of 55W into Sunday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Easterly swell of 8 to 10 ft is noted outside the Bahamas east of 72W, leftover from strong trade wind flow over the past couple of days. This will decay below 8 ft through tonight, just as southerly winds increase off northeast Florida ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move off the coast late Thursday, and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Friday, followed by strong winds and building seas. Winds and seas diminish north of 27N by Saturday as high pressure builds north of the area behind the front, as it exits east of the area. Fresh to strong trade winds persist mainly south of 25N into Sunday as high pressure builds north of the area behind the front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.