000 AGXX40 KNHC 270748 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 248 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence, then medium confidence late in the week. High pressure over the Carolinas and western Atlantic continues to support fresh to strong east winds across the Straits of Florida, against the Florida Current, likely allowing seas to reach as high as 9 ft in this area. Fresh southeast return flow is noted over the northwest Gulf, between the ridge and an approaching cold front over central Texas. The front will stall across the Gulf coast through mid week, allowing gentle to moderate east breezes across the Gulf through Wednesday. Offshore platforms over the northwest Gulf are again 3 to 5 nm in sea fog, as warm, moist air flows over cooler waters. This trend will persist through most of the next couple of days, although dense fog will be relegated to the near coastal waters where shelf waters are cooler. A stronger front will move into the far northwest Gulf on Thursday, then move rapidly to the southeast and reach from the Straits of Florida to the southwest Gulf by early Friday. Strong northerly winds will follow the front through Friday. There is still some uncertainty regarding the potential for gales along the coast of Mexico in the west central and southwest Gulf. GFS ensemble guidance is a little stronger than earlier runs, but still may be too weak with the wind flow over the western Gulf on Friday. Given the colder/drier airmass associated with the strong high pressure behind the front, at least near gale conditions are likely along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Will continue to hold for later models runs for now. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across all but the northwest portion of the Caribbean with 8 to 11 ft seas, and near gale force winds off Colombia with seas to 13 ft. A recent scatterometer pass showed strong northeast winds persist through the Windward Passage, and in the Gulf of in southeast Cuba. Although mostly gentle to moderate winds are noted over the northwest Caribbean, the scatterometer pass also showed fresh trades through the Gulf of Honduras. The high pressure north of the area will shift eastward and weaken, which will allow winds and seas over much of the area to diminish Wednesday and Thursday. The pressure gradient will continue to weaken through the end of the week as trades diminish to moderate across the basin, except fresh to strong northeast winds off Colombia, and residual east swell in excess of 8 ft over the southwest Caribbean persisting through Thursday. Northeast to east swell of 8 to 10 ft will also persist in the tropical north Atlantic waters through the end of the week. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Friday, followed by strong northeast winds and 8 to 9 ft seas in the Yucatan Channel. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. High pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong winds south of 27N today, with 8 to 9 ft seas east of the Bahamas and in the approaches to the Windward Passage. The ridge will shift south through today, eventually settling along 28N by mid week. This will allow winds and seas to subside across the region. Southwest flow increases by late Thursday north of 29N ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida by late Thursday. Strong northwest winds and building seas will follow the front as it sweeps rapidly to the southeast, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Friday. Winds and seas diminish north of 27N by Saturday as high pressure builds north of the area behind the front, as it exits east of the area. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.