000 AGXX40 KNHC 261902 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence, then medium confidence by late week. A strong ridge along the east coast of the United States is supporting fresh to strong east winds across the Straits of Florida today. The wind flow is against the Florida Current, likely allowing seas to reach as high as 9 ft in this area. Fresh southeast return flow is noted over the northwest Gulf, between the ridge and an approaching cold front over central Texas. The front will stall across the Gulf coast through mid week, allowing gentle to moderate east breezes across the Gulf from late today through Wednesday. Offshore platforms over the northwest Gulf are expected to have 3 to 5 nm in sea fog, as warm, moist air flows over cooler waters. This trend will persist through early Tuesday, although dense fog will be relegated to the near coastal waters where shelf waters are cooler. A stronger front will move into the far northwest Gulf on Thursday, and will move rapidly to the southeast and reach from the Straits of Florida to the southwest Gulf by early Friday. Strong northerly winds will follow the front through Friday. There is some uncertainty regarding the potential for gales along the coast of Mexico in the west central and southwest Gulf. Ensemble guidance is not showing this yet, but given the colder/drier airmass associated with the strong high pressure, at least near gale conditions are likely along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Will hold for later models runs for now. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy... and CMAN data continue to show fresh to strong winds over virtually all of the Caribbean. This area includes the Windward Passage. Seas range from 6-9 ft over the central Caribbean, except 9-11 ft near the NW coast of Colombia, 5-8 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean, and 7-9 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. High pressure will build north of the area through Tuesday, tightening the pressure gradient over the forecast waters. As a result, areal coverage of fresh to strong trades over the forecast waters will increase. Winds near the northwest coast of Colombia will continue to pulse to 30 kt during the overnight hours through Wednesday night. The northwest Caribbean will experience slightly weaker winds, with moderate to fresh winds expected there through mid week. With persistent fresh to strong trades over the Caribbean waters, seas will build to 10-12 ft over the central Caribbean by this evening. High pressure north of the area will shift eastward and weaken, which will allow winds and seas over much of the area to decrease Wednesday and Thursday. The pressure gradient will continue to weaken through the end of the week as trades diminish to moderate across the basin, except fresh to strong northeast winds off Colombia. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. High pressure over the eastern United States is supporting fresh to strong winds south of 27N today. Seas are 8 to 10 ft east of the southern Bahamas. The ridge will shift south through Tuesday, eventually settling along 28N by mid week. This will allow winds and seas to subside across the region. Southwest flow increases by late Thursday north of 29N ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida Thursday night. Strong northwest winds and building seas will follow the front as it sweeps rapidly to the southeast, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Friday. Winds and seas diminish north of 27N by Saturday as high pressure builds north of the area behind the front, as it exits east of the area. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Formosa. National Hurricane Center.