000 AGXX40 KNHC 251850 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A high pressure ridge extends southwestward over the Gulf. Weak surface troughing reaches NNW over the Bay of Campeche. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data indicate moderate to fresh east to southeast winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh SE to S winds W of 90W. Fresh to strong east winds are noted near and through the Straits of Florida. Seas remain generally in the 3-5 ft range across the basin, except 2-3 ft in the northeast Gulf, and 5-7 ft near and through the Straits of Florida. A high pressure ridge will remain in place along the northern Gulf coast through mid week as a cold front moving into Texas stalls and weakens. A thermally induced surface trough will develop early each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula, then shift westward over the southwest Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours where it will dissipate early each morning. Strong high pressure over the southeast United States will maintain the pressure gradient over the southeast Gulf today and tonight. The area of high pressure will shift into the Atlantic waters Monday through Wednesday. This will loosen the pressure gradient and allow winds over the southeast Gulf to gradually decrease through mid week. High pressure will continue to shift eastward and weaken through Thursday as the next potentially significant cold front approaches the area. That front may move into the northern Gulf Thursday night with at least fresh to strong northerly flow and building seas behind it. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy... and CMAN data show fresh to strong winds over virtually all of the Caribbean. This area includes the Windward Passage. Satellite derived winds reaching 30 kt near the NW coast of Colombia at 1416Z. Moderate to fresh winds are observed over the far SE and far SW Caribbean as well as the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas range from 6-9 ft over the central Caribbean, except 9-11 ft near the NW coast of Colombia, 5-8 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean, and 7-9 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. High pressure will build N of the area through Tuesday. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the forecast waters. As a result, areal coverage of fresh to strong trades over the forecast waters will increase. Winds near the NW coast of Colombia will continue to pulse to 30 kt during the overnight hours through Wednesday night. The NW Caribbean will experience slightly weaker winds, with moderate to fresh winds expected there through mid week. With persistent fresh to strong trades over the Caribbean waters, seas will build to 10-12 ft over the central Caribbean by this afternoon. High pressure N of the area will shift eastward and weaken, which will allow winds and seas over much of the area to decrease Wednesday and Thursday. The pressure gradient will continue to weaken through the end of the week as trades diminish to moderate across the basin, except near the NW coast of Colombia where NE winds will be fresh to locally strong. High pressure will begin to rebuild N of the area early next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A cold front currently exiting the United states east coast will remain N of the area. A narrow high pressure ridge extends E across the area along 29N. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the southern waters south of 27N, with light to moderate winds over the northern waters north of 27N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range outside the Bahamas, except 4-6 ft offshore of northern Florida, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. The high pressure ridge will be reinforced from the N through Tuesday. The strongest winds over the basin will coincide when the time period when the ridge is strongest, which will be tonight into Monday. Winds will diminish during the periods when the through Tuesday. The area of high pressure will shift E and weaken Wednesday. This will loosen the pressure gradient over the area which will further decrease winds and seas over the basin. The next potentially significant cold front may approach the northwest portion of the basin Thursday night. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas can be expected in the wake of the front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.