000 AGXX40 KNHC 250626 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 126 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. High pressure prevails over the area. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict mainly moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf waters, except fresh northeast to east flow near and through the Straits of Florida. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range across the basin, except 2-3 ft in the northeast Gulf, and 5-7 ft near and through the Straits of Florida. High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the middle of the week. A thermally induced surface trough will develop early each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula. This trough will shift westward into the southwest Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours each night where it will dissipate early each morning. Building high pressure over the southeast United States will tighten the pressure gradient and strengthen winds over the southeast Gulf today and tonight. The area of high pressure will shift into the Atlantic waters Monday through Wednesday. This will loosen the pressure gradient and decrease winds over the southeast Gulf through mid-week. High pressure will continue to weaken through Thursday as the next potentially significant cold front approaches the area. That front may move into the northern Gulf Thursday night with at least fresh to strong northerly flow and building seas behind it. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy... and CMAN data depict fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean waters, including the windward passage, and up to 30 kt near the northwest coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the remainder of the Caribbean waters as well as the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over the central Caribbean, except 9-11 ft near the northwest coast of Colombia, 5-8 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean, and 7-9 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. High pressure will build north of the area through the next several days. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the forecast waters. The tightened pressure gradient will increase areal coverage of fresh to strong trades to cover much of the forecast waters tonight through the middle of next week. Winds near the northwest coast of Colombia will continue to pulse to 30 kt during the overnight hours through Wednesday night. The northwest Caribbean will experience slightly weaker winds, with moderate to fresh winds expected there through the middle of the week. With persistent fresh to strong trades over the Caribbean waters, seas will build to 10-12 ft over the central Caribbean by this afternoon. High pressure will weaken north of the area midweek which will bring a decrease to winds and seas over much of the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The pressure gradient will continue to weaken through the end of the week with trades diminishing to moderate across the basin, except near the northwest coast of Colombia where they will be fresh to locally strong. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. High pressure prevails across the area. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship... buoy...and CMAN data depict mainly fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds over the southern waters south of 27N, with gentle to moderate winds over the northern waters north of 27N. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range outside the Bahamas, except 4-6 ft offshore of northern Florida, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. A progressive weather pattern will see the area of high pressure that prevails over the basin shifting eastward through this morning. A second area of high pressure will shift north of the area tonight and Monday, then east of the area by Tuesday. The strongest winds over the basin will coincide when the high pressure center is shifting just north of the area, which will be mainly tonight into Monday. Winds will diminish during the periods when the high center shifts away from the area, this morning and again on Tuesday. The area of high pressure will shift further from the area and weaken Wednesday. This will loosen the pressure gradient over the area which will further decrease winds and seas over the basin. The next potentially significant cold front may approach the northwest portion of the basin Thursday, with fresh to strong southerly winds possible ahead of it north of 27N, and fresh to strong northerly flow and building seas in its wake. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.