000 AGXX40 KNHC 231733 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1233 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. High pressure is building across the area. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the northern Gulf and 2-4 ft over the southern Gulf. High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the middle of next week. A thermally induced surface trough will develop early each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula. This trough will shift westward into the southwest Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours each night where it will dissipate early each morning. Building high pressure over the southeast United States will tighten the pressure gradient and strengthen winds over the southeast Gulf the second half of the upcoming weekend into early next week. The area of high pressure will shift into the Atlantic waters Monday into Tuesday. This will loosen the pressure gradient and decrease winds over the southeast Gulf Tuesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy... and CMAN data depict fresh to strong winds over the north central Caribbean waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevails over the remainder of the Caribbean waters as well as the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean, and 8-9 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. High pressure will prevail north of the area through the next several days. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the forecast waters. The tightened pressure gradient will increase areal coverage of fresh to strong trades to cover much of the forecast waters by Tuesday. The exception will be over the western Caribbean where moderate to fresh trades will prevail. With persistent fresh to strong trades over the Caribbean waters, seas will build to 11 ft over the central Caribbean by early next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A cold front prevails over the northwest waters. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict moderate to fresh winds over the northern waters and gentle to moderate over the southern waters. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range outside the Bahamas, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. The cold front will shift across the northern waters, shifting east of the area early this weekend. A progressive weather pattern will see high pressure build across the forecast area in the wake of the front Saturday, then shift eastward by the end of the weekend. A second area of high pressure will shift north of the area Monday then east of the area by Tuesday. The strongest winds over the area will coincide when the high pressure center is shifting just north of the area, which will be mainly Saturday and Monday. Wind will diminish during the periods when the high center shifts away from the area, on Sunday and Tuesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster AL. National Hurricane Center.